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Whenever the Thai political system is weak, the role of the military becomes enhanced. As the top Army commander, General Anupong is in the best position to ensure political stability if turmoil were to break out. Nonetheless, he does not seem to harbour political ambitions.

It would not be easy to be in General Anupong's shoes at the moment. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which restarted its street protests in Bangkok on May 25, has been pressuring him to act. The PAD has attacked him vigorously and urged the military to come out of the barracks to defend the monarchy against the threat of the "nominee" government represented by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. The PAD is waging its last battle to try to weed out the Thaksin regime from Thailand once and for all.

General Anupong must have been perturbed by this crazy demand from the PAD, whose political demands keep changing by the day. But it is not easy for him to also try to maintain his neutrality as Thai politics becomes increasingly polarised between Thaksin supporters and anti-Thaksin protesters. The only thing he can do is maintain his composure and stay calm. The military just can't take its tanks out in the current political pretext.

General Anupong is also in the awkward position of being a friend of Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted prime minister. They went to the same pre-cadet military class. Most of his military classmates have chosen to support Thaksin, who had Gen Pornchai Kranlert in mind to head up the Army. During the political crisis in 2006, General Anupong, called "the black sheep" by his classmates, crossed the line to the other side to support General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who succeeded in staging a bloodless coup against Thaksin. Now most of his classmates have been sidelined to unimportant military posts, while he has gone on to strengthen his grip in the military by appointing his people to key positions.

Whenever Samak travels abroad, he orders General Anupong to accompany him. Some have criticised General Anupong for trying to stay too close to power by trying to please Samak. But since Samak is also defence minister, General Anupong can't violate a superior's order.

But we all know that Samak is afraid that the military might turn against him. Former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan was held at gunpoint while he was boarding a military aircraft at Don Muang in a 1991 military coup. Thaksin lost power while he was staying at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York and preparing to deliver an address to the United Nations. Samak does not want to see his career end like those  of Chatichai or Thaksin.

Anupong would definitely not stage a military coup, although he has the capacity to do so. The previous Sonthi-led coup has taught the country a dear lesson: a coup is not an answer to political power. Seizing power is easy; running the country is more difficult. The international community also would not accept another coup.

In the meantime, General Anupong has developed a very good rapport with Samak. If Samak does not mess with military affairs, then General Anupong will preserve his neutrality. Samak also realises that the stability of his government depends on its military backing at this crucial juncture. Samak is loyal to the monarchy and gets military support. That's all he cares about.

While General Anupong guards his neutrality, the judicial process is getting underway. The Thai political conflict will unravel through the judicial process. General Anupong has already made a rare statement urging Thais to have patience and let the judicial system handle the political conflict.

Thaksin, who is very much an influence on the Samak government, is now fighting corruption cases in the courts. He is being handcuffed by the judicial process and has been barred from travelling abroad.

Looking ahead, Thaksin is likely to lose one of the court cases, which would bring his career, and the broader political conflict of Thailand, to an end. But he is fighting back. His supporters are fanning the flames by calling for a rewrite of the Constitution to change the political game and also attacking independent agencies and the Constitution Court. If the PAD were to pick up the fight again, it would lead to a confrontation with Thaksin supporters.

There lies the danger of Thai politics. The final outcome will be determined no later than September.