No victory parade just yet

Speaking to reporters prior to his departure, the Army chief warned against being complacent, saying that while the overall number of insurgents' attacks may have dropped, the level of intensity continues to be strong throughout the region.

Anupong's warning is understandable. Six militants recently staged an attack on a moving train, taking down six officials in a quick but bloody gunfight in Yala. Just last week, two rangers escorting students in and out of a highly contested area in Pattani were picked off in an ambush.

Indeed, over the past month, security forces and units have come under direct attacks by insurgents staging their operations on the ground.

This same period has also seen improved intelligence gathering, which has translated into security units zooming in on suspected insurgents' hideouts, as opposed to groups of some 200 soldiers conducting blind sweeps of entire villages - a tactic that was employed during much of the second half of last year.

Another dramatic change has been the fewer number of attacks on public schools. Last year there were 162 attacks on schools. This year that number is less than 10.

The Fourth Army credits the presence of the Rangers, the paramilitary troops posted in small pockets in red - extremely volatile - areas.

A senior official in the Patani United Liberation Organisation dismissed the claim. He maintained that insurgents on the ground still have the liberty to pick and choose their targets and the fact that they are choosing not to hit public schools has nothing to do with the presence of Rangers.

The true reason for the decreased number of attacks on schools may be a combination of a change of strategy on the part of insurgents and more successful intelligence gathering on the part of government security forces.

If anything, his visit to the deep South could give the Army chief the opportunity to take a big gulp of fresh air, a respite from the pro- and anti-government political forces in Bangkok that have been trying to lure him into their respective camps.

It is not likely that Anupong will use his visit to the deep South to push for a new platform for the region, although he should.

In the end, it will probably go down like any other visit of Thailand's top brass to the restive region - plenty of pep talks, hefty hugs and sniff kisses.