Samak is counting down his days as pm

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is facing a perfect storm. The Constitution Court has ruled that his Cabinet violated the Constitution when it approved, without seeking passage from Parliament, a joint communique with Cambodia on the Temple of Preah Vihear being listed as a World Heritage site. Once a government is found to have violated the Constitution, which represents the highest law of the land, it must resign in order to show respect to the rule of law. But we can't expect such a display of high moral value from the Samak government. The People Power Party wants to send Noppadon Pattama, the foreign minister, to face the death squad alone.

A group of 77 senators, as well as the Opposition Democrats, smell blood. The senators would like to bring criminal charges against the Samak Cabinet through the National Counter Corruption Commission, while the Democrats would like to launch impeachment proceedings against Samak and Noppadon through Parliament. An impeachment would require 90 Senate votes out of 150. If the NCCC finds that there are grounds for criminal wrongdoing, the Samak government must cease to run the country - and this would potentially plunge the country into a power vacuum.

There are not many options left for Samak. If he continues to hang tough on his job, he will at the same time face a host of legal hurdles. Samak is now under investigation for possible violation of the constitution by hosting a TV cooking programme and earning about Bt80,000 a month. He is also appealing a libel case that carries a jail term. This case could go against him any time. Samak is also under pressure due to the alleged corruption case involving the procurement of fire trucks when he was governor of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. A Japanese contractor has recently confessed to paying a bribe of Bt120 million to the BMA in 2003, when Samak was Bangkok Governor.

Of course, Samak would like to stay on as long as possible because the premiership is the culmination of his political career. Within the People Power Party, he is also losing support. There has been wide speculation that the bribery case involving the Japanese contractor was leaked by people working for the "big boss". The problem is that if the People Power Party were to remove Samak, it could not find anybody to succeed him. A new nominee prime minister would likely draw unending flak. The probability is high that its 37 executive members could be disqualified from politics for five years once the Election Commission takes on the party dissolution case in connection with Yongyuth Tiyapairat's disqualification from politics for five years for election fraud. 

If the PPP steps aside to let Banharn Silapa-archa, leader of the Chart Thai Party, take the helm as prime minister, it might be able to buy time. This is another possible way of salvaging the government without having to dissolve Parliament. Another possibility, which is slim, is that the coalition partners use their votes to support Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat Party leader, as prime minister.

If the worst comes to the worst, Samak will have to call an early election by dissolving Parliament. According to Phatra Securities: "We believe that a parliamentary dissolution within 3-4 months is a 70 per cent probability. The opposition Democrats could form a minority coalition if only to stay briefly in power and then preside over general elections, but we give this only a 20 per cent probability. The remaining 10 per cent we attribute to the possibility of an appointed government via extra-constitutional means."

But a new election will not change the course of the judicial review, which is under way in earnest. Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still influential, is facing court charges which could go against him between now and September. Between now and then, Thai politics will still be in turmoil. Any way out is still a bleak path because of the deep underlying divisions in Thai society between those who support Thaksin and those who oppose him.