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GURU SPEAK

Troubled times, yes, but safe investment options abound

Paul Dietrich is chairman of Alexandria, US Virginia-based Foxhall Capital Management:



 Since 1945, the average bear market has lasted about two years and knocked the S&P 500-stock index down 36 per cent. Now is not the time to drink the "buy and hold" investment strategy Kool-Aid. Be conservative, limit your risk - and sleep well knowing your investment principal is not going to continue to decline.

   If you want to avoid the stock market, I recommend a mix of two exchange-traded funds:

   l80 per cent in Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (symbol TIP). The Treasury protects your principal by adjusting your US government bond investments each month to keep pace with inflation, now above 4 per cent and likely to go higher before year's end.

   l20 per cent in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Gold funds traditionally go up when the dollar goes down. No matter who wins this year's election, the deficit will continue to go up. The government will print more money. The dollar will continue to decline.

George Munoz is a principal at Munoz Group in Arlington, Virginia:

   In recessionary times, you want to protect your investment from erosion. If the stock market is not an option, try the following:

   Pay off your debts, including mortgages and home-equity lines of credit. By reducing mortgages and home-equity lines, you are protecting your line of credit for emergencies when no other credit is available.

   Put some money in TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which automatically adjust to cover inflation risks.

   Invest in yourself. Consider taking courses that will certify you as a specialist or help license you in a profession with better wages.

   For the more daring, invest in tourist properties in Central America and the Caribbean while that real estate plummets over the next year or so as the US economy slumps and airfares rise.

   When things turn around, the Caribbean will again become

a major destination.

David Speck is managing director of investments at Speck-Caudron Investment Group of Wachovia Securities:

   In an uncertain market, the best thing you can do is avoid any strategy that is predicated on hoping you guess right on stock movements. Over time, the market always goes up, and the only way to participate is by being invested at a level that does not cause you to lose sleep.

   A reasonable strategy is to buy several well-managed stock mutual funds that cover a broad base - domestic large-, mid- and small-cap stocks, blue-chip

dividend stocks, and global/foreign.

   But keep some of your money in short-term cash instruments - CDs, traditional money markets, Treasury bills. You'll get low interest, but you also get the flexibility to invest back in the market.

   Most important, don't panic or make panicky decisions. Successful investors are balanced and diversified, invest long-term and typically hold on to investments that are well managed even when values fluctuate.


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