
Samak would like to create the impression that if the Cabinet is to be shuffled at all, after the bruising no-confidence debate in Parliament, it will be on his terms rather than the media's. Apparently, the PM is trying to use the media as the scapegoat. But we wonder whether he really has the muscle to reshuffle the Cabinet according to his own judgement. Samak has been brought in by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to head the People Power Party. He does not own the party. The media have nothing to do with the Cabinet reshuffle. The media only reflect the public view that the Cabinet has done a lousy job over the past four months in handling the economic problems. Instead it has only created unnecessary headaches for the country. Most people would like Samak to remove incompetent Cabinet members.
Indeed, the time is right for Samak to reshuffle his Cabinet in a big way. The People's Alliance for Democracy has been weakened after losing cases in the Civil and Administrative courts. Only the opposition Democrats can really hurt the government, but they cannot topple the administration, which commands a big majority in Parliament.
Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat leader, yesterday called for Samak to reshuffle his Cabinet without delay. He said Samak should remove ministers who are linked with legal cases and bring in new faces who can work without hindrance. This would help create unity and allow the government to concentrate on tackling economic priorities.
Chaiya Sasomsap, the health minister, and Wiroon Techapaiboon, the deputy commerce minister, both have problems regarding their assets declarations. Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, the finance minister, and Uraiwan Thiengthong, the labour minister, are tied up with the on-line lottery scandal, which will soon be deliberated upon by the Supreme Court.
Thaksin recently hinted that the stars will clear the way for the political situation to return to normal - after July 2 in fact. Implicit in his comment is a Cabinet reshuffle. Some local newspapers have already speculated that Noppadon will have a difficult time hanging on to his job. The Preah Vihear Temple case is so controversial that he will have to be sacrificed by the ruling party. Mingkwan simply can't stay on in the commerce portfolio. He might be able to keep his post as deputy prime minister, or might lose both jobs altogether.
The problem with the Samak government is that it lacks an economic tsar. With Thailand facing its worst economic problems in 10 years, there is no capable economic team to run the country. Mingkwan and Surapong have been fighting for the position of economic tsar, and it seems that Mingkwan has lost. But Surapong does not fit the mould for this important task either. He has a quick mind and learns the macro-economic issues very fast. But he can't explain them clearly to the public, nor has he the charisma to win the confidence of the business community. That's why the names of Dr Olarn Chaipravat and Dr Virabongsa Ramangkura, both economic gurus, have been floated as potential candidates for the finance portfolio. If either one of them agrees to step in at this critical time, Surapong will have to move on to another portfolio.
Olarn or Virabongsa could help improve the image and the competency of the Samak government, which lacks capable ministers. But the important thing is that the Samak II Cabinet must not work under political constraints. Otherwise, it won't last very long. The public's patience over the government's handling of the economy is running thin.