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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Is north korea's nuclear declaration a breakthrough?

After a six-month delay, North Korea has delivered a declaration of its nuclear activities to China, the chair of the six-party talks.



This was part of a deal made in September 2005. Pyongyang's decision is commendable and came at a crucial time. It will certainly boost the reputation of US President George Bush, who has made disarming North Korea's nuclear arsenal one of his top foreign priorities. The declaration also demonstrates the importance of having a multilateral security framework in Northeast Asia and the need to institutionalise it in the near future.

After declaring that North Korea was part of the "axis of evil" and a terrorist state in January 2002, the US has since tried hard to persuade the country to give up its nuclear ambitions. That effort came to fruition during the latter half of the second Bush administration when the six-party talks kicked off again. The delivery of long-awaited details on North Korea's plutonium will lay the groundwork for future relations with the US and the rest of the world.

On top of that, Pyongyang knows it needs to improve its image overseas as well as its creditability, if not already absent entirely. International reports related to North Korea often raise issues related to the sincerity of its intentions and actions. As such, the destruction of the Yongbyon cooling tower over the weekend was moved forward to show the government's goodwill. Pyongyang's desperate need to build trust was shown in live TV coverage by invited international correspondents. For a country as isolated as North Korea, this kind of publicity stunt must be considered extraordinary.

In return, Bush has committed to taking North Korea off his country's terrorism blacklist. He will also exempt it from the Trading with the Enemy Act, which will essentially end the 58-year sanction and allow the US to trade and invest in North Korea. "Action for action" has now become the catch-phrase describing Washington's readiness to match every action taken by Pyongyang. But if these moves are not verifiable, everything could return to square one again. The US hopes that its rapid quid pro quo responses would encourage Iran, which is at loggerheads with the West over the same nuclear issue, to comply with UN Security Council resolutions and avoid sanctions.

Fearing the US might forget to push the kidnapping issue, Japan has pointedly reminded North Korea that the issue remains central to any possible improvement of Japan-North Korea relations. Five Japanese nationals were returned home in 2005 following Pyongyang's confession of having ordered the kidnapping. Tokyo has repeatedly demanded the return of all abductees. Meanwhile North Korea has also failed to provide sufficient information on the disappearance of a young Thai lady, Ms Anocha Panjoy, who is believed to have been kidnapped by North Korean agents in Macao in 1978.

In the next 45 days, members of the six-party talks will discuss and agree on a mechanism to verify and monitor North Korea's nuclear declaration. This will provide the much-needed impetus for turning the current format into a new regional security apparatus. This multilateral framework has proven to be useful in reducing tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

The success of North Korea's nuclear disarmament has posed serious challenges to the existing regionwide security group, known as the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), which was founded in 1994, the same year that the disarmament effort began in Geneva. The Asean-led ARF still struggles today to move forward from confidence-building to the preventive diplomacy stage with more tangible results. Judging from the outcome, the six-party talks have now reached the conflict-resolution stage. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is another security grouping that has accelerated their cooperation.

To be relevant, the ARF needs to reinvent itself dramatically with increased participation from non-Asean members in co-hosting the annual meeting as well as intersessional programmes selected for joint cooperation. The forum needs to be more action-oriented and should not shy away from engaging in talks on difficult and sensitive topics.

If Pyongyang comes clean, as it says it will, further incentives should be considered. Back in 2003, Thailand suggested that North Korea be made a new member of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation but the idea was aborted as Pyongyang toughened its position on nuclear build-up and test-fired its missiles. The Asean chair, Singapore, has recently officially invited North Korea to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Its ascension would strengthen Asean and its position in the ARF. After all, the ARF was used as a venue to follow up on the six-party talks during the difficult period between 2005 and 2007.

A peaceful Korean Peninsula will have an impact on regional security and stability. After the end of the Korean War, Asia's security was single-handedly dominated by the US military's might and presence. For the first time, a multilateral security arrangement is emerging that allows all major powers to engage in constructive ways. The question is: should there be several security frameworks to preserve peace and prevent future wars within the region?


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