• 
• 

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej let out a sigh of relief yesterday after his government won a no-confidence debate in Parliament by a vote of 280 to 162. Bringing down the government would require a minimum of at least 236 "nay" votes. But Samak and his Cabinet must have realised that winning votes in Parliament is much easier than winning the confidence of the general public. This is only the beginning of the long, tough task ahead to keep Thailand moving again.

During the censure debate, the opposition Democrats pointed out several weaknesses and flaws in the government's management of the country. These ranged from Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama's dubious handling of the Preah Vihear controversy, through the government's rice policy and the "irregular" bus leases - which would have cost the Transport Ministry Bt54 billion over 10 years - and on to a host of other economic problems that the opposition says the government has mismanaged.

 The Chart Thai Party and other coalition partners quite reluctantly agreed to raise their hands in support of the government. But their votes were conditional on Thailand withdrawing its endorsement for Cambodia to file a solo application to have the Preah Vihear Temple added to Unesco's World Heritage List. Chart Thai felt that Noppadon failed to clearly explain Thailand's stance on this controversy. Noppadon might have violated the Constitution by failing to consult Parliament over his endorsement of Cambodia's push for Preah Vihear, while the sovereignty issue remains unclear.

Another of the coalition members' conditions was for Samak to embark on a major Cabinet reshuffle to revive the image of the government. Still, this was all political dealing and horse-trading. Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan was grilled badly in Parliament not only by the Democrat Party but also by Samak, who blamed Mingkwan for listening too much to the ministry's officials. Mingkwan, Noppadon and Transport Minister Santi Prompat, among others, are expected to be moved out of their portfolios in a Cabinet reshuffle.

The present Cabinet make-up reflects the People Power Party's attempt to reward Grade B and Grade C politicians. Now if the People Power Party wants to give the Samak government a new lease of life, it would need capable people in its key Cabinet portfolios. Looking ahead, Thai inflation looks like it will peak at double-digit figures in August before stabilising throughout the year. If this is the case, the government will need capable economic ministers to handle the economic policy in a more systematic way, addressing the problems clearly in the short, medium and long term.

The survival of the Samak government depends on how it manages economic problems and whether it can avoid big corruption scandals. Moreover, it must avoid doing anything that irks the public, such as rewriting the Constitution to help banned politicians return to power. Unfortunately, the People Power Party is still contemplating rewriting the Constitution to help those connected to the party. Doing so would further fuel political turmoil.

Within Parliament, the Samak government is confident that it has enough backing from MPs. But outside of Parliament, politics on the streets remain a worry. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has lost the momentum it needed to topple the Samak government. This came after Samak moved the debate from the streets to Parliament by allowing the Democrats to launch the no-confidence debate. As a result, all the political focus shifted to Parliament rather than to the streets in front of Government House, where PAD has been holding its political rallies to oust the Samak government. PAD is now having a difficult time finding a soft landing.

Samak is now looking at how best to get his government going again. The past four months have been long enough to show that the government is inept at managing the country. It also has several hidden agendas. It is not too late now to put the right people into the right jobs. Samak must have more of a sympathetic ear to the plight of the people and to criticisms of his administration so that he can improve the government's performance. If he speaks less, he will prove to be of greater service to the country.