Pad pushes government to its breaking point

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has kept on improvising its rallies. This is rather troublesome because it no longer plays by the rules. Nobody knows what it really wants. PAD started its street demonstrations on May 25 this year. It accused the government of attempting to rewrite the 2007 Constitution to help ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra overcome the corruption cases against him. Afterward, it focused its campaign on removing Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, and his Cabinet from office. PAD has accused Samak and the Cabinet of acting as a nominee for Thaksin. Now it has gone so far as to try to block the People Power Party from government altogether. This demand is no longer reasonable.

Nonetheless, the PAD rallies reflect a divided Thailand. A large number of Thai people do not trust that the judicial process will be able to take on Thaksin. That's why they have returned to the streets to rally against Thaksin and his nominees. PAD has been able to move the site of its rallies from Makkhawan Bridge to Government House. Fortunately, there was no clash on Friday between security forces and PAD supporters. But the PAD demonstrations in front of Government House show that Samak is no longer in charge of the country.

The military would like Samak to resign in order to reduce the political tension. Both Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda, and Lt-General Prayuth Chan-ocha, the commander of the First Army Region, did not want the government to resort to issuing an emergency decree or invoking the Internal Security Act to get rid of PAD. If the emergency laws were to be used, the military would have to take the place of the police in rounding up PAD supporters. It is justifiable for the military to want a political solution to this conflict, one that would have to be worked out under constitutional means.

Of course, Samak does not want to resign to pave the way for a new prime minister. He has the power to dissolve Parliament when worst comes to worst. The situation is rather tricky. Samak has been totally isolated. Thaksin, Newin Chidchob and other core leaders of the People Power Party also want Samak out. Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat or Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee could succeed Samak because both are members of the inner circle of the People Power Party.

Samak was against attempts by the Opposition Democrat Party and the Senate to grill the government over its failure to manage the economy. The Democrats have also accused some ministers of engaging in corruption. But House Speaker Chai Chidchob suddenly agreed to enter the censure motion filed by the Democrats into Parliament. The prime minister cannot dissolve Parliament while a censure motion is on the floor. The censure debate will last two days, starting tomorrow and ending on Wednesday. The Senate will launch a general debate today without casting a vote.

Interestingly, the censure debate is placed ahead of the budget debate on Thursday and Friday. The coalition partners can't betray the government by pulling out during the censure motion because they all need to pass the budget for fiscal 2009. Samak's survival will be determined next week. But it is not yet certain how the political conflict will end because PAD is demanding a wholesale change of the government.