PAD uses classic military strategies

The ground gives rise to measurements, measurements give rise to assessments, assessments give rise to calculations, calculations give rise to comparison and comparisons give rise to victories.

When war veteran Chamlong Srimuang, a leader of the anti-government street protests by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), announced the movement of his "army" from Makkhawan Bridge to Government House, people in power reacted as if the protesters would achieve victory soon.

What Chamlong will do today is just a matter of formation, not a real attack, to measure where victory and defeat lie. He will change the formation of the protest movement to test how soft - or harsh - the response is from the authorities.

Chamlong and people in the PAD are not new faces in the battle. What they are doing is merely a continuation of their unfinished struggle that began some three years ago.

They rushed to celebrate a victory they did not achieve after the September 19, 2006, coup. Having realised the victory was incomplete, they have returned to the battle again with the same goal, to bring down Thaksin Shinawatra and his proxy government; with the same strategy, to tag along with the elite class in the capital; and with the same tactic, street protests.

The physical terrain is the same as in the previous battle but the location is slightly different.

Previously they used Thammasat University, the Royal Plaza, Sanam Luang, Democracy Monument, Makkhawan Bridge and the area in front of Government House. Today they will take a short cut short from Thammasat to the monument, Makkhawan Bridge and the Prime Minister's Office.

Changing the protest location might achieve nothing politically, but the old soldier Chamlong knows the psychology of his troops. The protesters well know they cannot sit still in the same place for too long because it could cause their courage to falter or stagnate.

As in a military battle, the capture of strategic points is an achievement. Changing the formation of the movement to occupy a different location could imply a psychological achievement - although it is not real.

The Prime Minister's Office is the centre of administrative authority.

The ability to move closer to this centre could be a symbolic sign, being a siege of the opponent's headquarters.

However, there are risks and gains in real terms, depending on the opponent's response.

Media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, also a PAD leader, has plenty of experience, having led a group of protesters from Lumpini Park to Government House when he began his war against Thaksin in 2005. Many protesters were lured into and then trapped in the compound, destroying their legitimacy as peaceful protesters. Intrusion into the government's compound is against the law.

Chamlong got the point and instructed his protesters not to invade the compound even though the gates were left open.

The government also faces a big risk if it uses weapons and violence in any form against the protesters. Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has instructed the armed forces to stay calm. The risk remains, however, if he cannot control Pracha Prasobdee, the People Power Party's Samut Prakan MP and leader of the anti-PAD group the Great Public Group for the Protection of Democracy.

The classic admonition from the Taoist text suggests that weapons are instruments of ill omen. Using force against the protesters will mean a defeat for the government.