Motion may deflate like a samak cake

This weekly column every Friday is aimed at tackling questions on Thailand's cursed, unpredictable and confusing political arena (we'll try to think of proper answers, or we'll just muddle our way through, throwing in a bit of scientific mumbo-jumbo to make it look like we know what we're talking about).

The column is mediated by Tulsathit Taptim with the help of the Political Desk. Anything you want to know under the Thai political sun can be addressed: send an email to tulsat@hotmail.com.

We'd like to make this column a kind of community effort, so if we are totally at sea regarding certain questions, we won't pretend to be smart and will shamelessly ask for your help.

To kick it off, we will start with general questions surrounding the plan to amend the Constitution.

Is the motion to amend the Constitution at risk now that some MPs have withdrawn their support?

The motion was originally signed by 164 MPs and senators. Now, normally 126 signatures are required for a motion, but 32 of our representatives have backed out, leaving 132. A few more are ready to bolt, so the motion is looking decidedly shaky. It will only take seven more "abandonees" and the motion will implode like a Samak sponge cake in a non-stick wok. We believe 10 are ready to pull out.

What will happen then?

With new signatures, the motion could be revived. Newin Chidchob is believed to be working on a contingency plan to gather support from northeastern MPs, providing he can catch them on their new Yamaha Finos.

If the government wants to defuse the political crisis or cool the political temperature, which is near boiling point right now, it may decide to let the motion die. There's more chance of winning a two-digit lottery, however.

If the motion is not aborted, can it be at least delayed?

Yes. Parliament is required to put a motion on its agenda once it has been legitimately submitted, but since the parliamentary agenda is not bound by any legal timeframe, it could be hanging around the edges for as long as our army of ex-prime ministers. This will enable the government to hold a referendum before Parliament deliberates the motion.

How soon can we have the referendum?

The Election Commission is expected to complete a draft bill on the referendum next week.