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Confronting Thailand's own looming 'Battle at Kruger'

More than thirty million people around the world have viewed it on YouTube.



The eight-minute Web video gave the viewers a fascinating glimpse of wildlife at a watering hole in Kruger National Park, South Africa. The camera captured animal behaviour that makes me ponder.

"The Battle at Kruger" as it is entitled, is about the confrontation of buffaloes, lions and crocodiles. The footage first shows a small group of buffaloes walking leisurely by the watering hole - the centre of life in the wild. Then, several lions appeared - "kings of the jungle", who instinctively charged the buffalo herd, picking off a calf as the rest of the buffaloes dispersed. The lions dragged the calf away for the kill as he was fighting for his life.

The lions accidentally dropped the calf into the water hole. Emerging from the water out of the blue came two crocodiles who shared the same taste and appetite as the lions.  They tried to yank the calf away from its first captors. The lions were seen pulling the calf by the head, the crocodiles by the tail, the calf meanwhile, struggled with all his might to break free from the two predators, tragically to no avail.

The lions finally triumphed. They dragged their prey from the water, heading to their territory to share the catch of the day.

Suddenly, we heard a roaring sound. Then came the startling sight; the buffaloes were galloping en masse and in full force to rescue one of their own!

Outnumbered and startled, the "kings of the jungle" began to behave strangely.

By the law of the wild, lions are predators and not supposed to be afraid of buffaloes - they are usually the prey. They are not supposed to back down under threat from other animals. But this particular time the lions did. Some started to turn and run away. We saw the emboldened buffaloes running in hot pursuit after the lions. One kicked and tossed a lion up the air. The baby buffalo, still alive at that point, was released. The last scene shows him rejoining the rest of the buffaloes, running away from the battle scene.

We do not know if the calf eventually survived the ordeal.

This remarkable tooth-and-claw struggle of the natural world has left me with a distinct message - the power of the mass that can change the dynamics of a power equation. The one force unleashed by the 1997 Charter and the five years of the government elected under that Constitution is the awareness of the majority of its rights.

Having made numerous trips to the Northeast in the past year and talking with many locals, I came to realise that such awareness has taken root. These are the people who in the past felt they did not matter from the standpoint of the many previous governments in Bangkok. All of a sudden, there was a government that seemed to be less insensitive to their basic needs. They felt it was a government that embraced them, and they embraced it back.

Many of us may dismiss the demonstration by these villagers at political rallies as "paid" mercenaries. Some actually were, but many were not. These were people who willingly rallied in support of the deposed government. They did it because they were genuinely grateful to the one government that seemed to care.

These were the people who went to the polls and elected the government we have in place today.

Bangkokians can throw out a government, but they cannot elect one. The 1997 Charter also encourages active participation in the political process of indigenous civic groups and non-government organisations. These groups are becoming more vocal and vigilant.

In the past, all but a few of our coups d'etat were a process by which the incongruous sets of interests between two military groups got realigned. Once a few tanks amassed by one military group rolled up in the streets of Bangkok, and Radio Thailand station seized, the battle was won. Scores were settled, usually in a civil manner and in a short while. The affairs of the country then carried on. No significant institutional changes took place.

That is the way it was. Perhaps it is not the way it is likely to be.

The chasm between those with money and those without, those in the know, and those who are not, seems to have widened and deepened.

Obviously, these divides have been unashamedly exploited in the furtherance of an agenda other than the wellbeing of the browbeaten. Due process of the law is one of the first casualties, paving a way to the whimsical exploitation of amassed power. The other casualty is truth, and we are inundated with incendiary rumours, hyperbole and propaganda.

The government in power is not completely in the driver's seat. There are unyielding political factions and sub-factions as well as pressure groups that are willing to go for broke. We have the armed forces that are very reluctant to take action as they are still reeling from the less than satisfactory outcome of their last action. We have disenfranchised bureaucrats who would rather sit on their hands than put nosesout of joint, risking demotion. We have the mass that is becoming more ready to throw its weight about.

Meanwhile, we have the economy that is severely crippled by political instability and rising inflation. There is no instant panacea for our economic malaise.

Ours is a political crisis in the making. And this one will be a battle fought on unfamiliar territory. It is no longer a bicameral parliamentary battle. There are numerous differing factions and one major variable - the mob and the majority. They are the new factors in the equation.

A friend of mine -   one of Thailand's best economists, recently commented on Mark Mobius's investment principle. The king of investing in emerging markets contended that a political crisis always creates a knee-jerk reaction, so "buy when there is blood on the streets". My friend believes our political situation is a breeding ground for a profound sea change that could lead to more than just a knee-jerk reaction.

When the Pandora's box is opened, unimaginable outcomes may ensue. As for the country, and those of us ordinary people trying to make an honest living and to cope, we are the buffalo calf.

Being pulled in so many directions by so many forces, we cannot know how well we can survive, let alone how things will eventually play out.

Winston Churchill said it's the victors who write history. In our case it is difficult to predict who will do the writing. There may not be a victor.


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