Burmese junta's lessons in diplomacy

The international community as a whole has already displayed its commitment to assisting the victims of Cyclone Nargis. At the same time, the leaders of the Burmese junta have also displayed their diplomatic prowess in handling the influx of foreign donors, officials, and journalists.

Representatives from 51 countries have pledged that they would assist in providing long-term humanitarian aid to assist in the rehabilitation and reconstruction of affected areas. They will be more forthcoming in the next few weeks if the junta proves to them that it can be a reliable partner in the delivery and distribution of aid. Quite a few countries have said  they only want to provide funding for individual projects, which would impact the lives of locals directly.

Indeed, Burma has come a long way in its engagement with the international community. Due to the catastrophe  on May 2 and 3, all taboos and protocols related to Burma have been put aside. Countries that had taken a hard-line approach towards Burma, such as the US and members of the EU, have focused instead on humanitarian efforts and saving lives.

Otherwise, the importance of old issues related to seating, flag arrangements and related diplomatic nitty-gritty could surface again and pose an insurmountable barrier to future rehabilitation. Since 1992, the diplomatic status of Burma has been a bone of contention that has disrupted and frustrated relations between Asean and its Western dialogue partners.

Diplomatic acceptance of Burma in the Asia Europe Meeting in 2005, for example, came about due to pressure from Asean. Then, Burma's diplomatic standing was all but destroyed by its own brutality when the junta violently cracked down against monks and peaceful demonstrators last September. The cyclone was a blessing in disguise, as the international community has joined hands to provide humanitarian assistance to Burma and its victims.

Sympathy for the cyclone's victims has kept other countries from politicising the issue. None of them mentioned the second national referendum on the new constitution that was conducted in the cyclone-affected areas a day earlier. The National League of Democracy has already rejected the referendum's outcome and labelled it a sham. Worse, the fate of Aung San Suu Kyi, still under house arrest, was not discussed. Her one-year detention renewal order comes to an end tonight. She has to be released because under Burmese law nobody can be held more than five years without being freed or put on trial, according to US lawyer Jared Genser.

But this window of goodwill will not stay open forever. At best, it is temporary. If the Burmese junta fails to raise confidence now, the international community will turn from cooperative to assertive. Lessons from North Korea's food shortage and Iran's earthquake in Bam in 2003 have reminded the junta leaders that limited access and lack of transparency will drive away foreign assistance and relief efforts.

If Burma continues to drag its feet in delaying aid delivery, as well as denying visas for relief workers and journalists, confidence in the regime, which is still marginal, will fade away. Within the next two days, hundreds of foreign relief workers and Bangkok-based journalists will find out if their entry visas have been approved.

The future attitudes of key donors will be subject to Burma's response and cooperation. Failure to fulfil much-hyped expectations on Burma's side could push members of the UN Security Council, especially the US, France and Britain, to place the issue on the agenda.

If that happens, it would be interesting to watch the reaction of China, which has won praise as well as sympathy from around the world due to the open access it has granted foreign media reporting on the aftermath of the earthquake in Sichuan.

One positive development of the conference is the immediate impact it has had on bilateral relations. Several Western countries that previously had hostile relations with the junta sent their representatives and sat side by side with junta representatives at the meeting. The corridor meeting, apart from the conference meeting, enables all participants to engage with each other informally.

One diplomat who attended the conference observed relations improving between the US and Burma, judging from the interaction and dialogue between US Asean Ambassador Scot Marciel and Burmese senior officials on Sunday. Other countries also benefited from bilateral meetings and quite a few international relief agencies have also renewed contact with the regime.

We will find out sooner rather than later how Burma wants to be seen and eventually treated by the international community in coming decades.