
After all, they do want to be part of this historic rescue mission. It is an extremely sensitive issue as they are well aware they are dealing with a hard-line pariah recipient that not so long ago was the target of their condemnation. Worse, Burma has no record of worthwhile aid partnership. Deep down, they all fear the junta will misuse and abuse the aid given.
More than three weeks have elapsed since the cyclone yet available relief supplies have not been delivered in full and thousands of children and the elderly are facing death. At the time of writing, the Asean-UN International Pledging Conference had not yet ended and the total funds committed was not known. Suffice it to say the manner in which the Burmese leaders behave and the level of confidence they generate will determine the amount of funds. For instance, Burma was insisting on being one of the co-chairs of the conference along with Asean and the UN, whereas Western donors said the meeting was an Asean-UN affair. The UN has appealed for US$201 million (Bt6.4 billion) in emergency funds for Burma.
Before the conference, major donor countries, publicly funded aid agencies and Asean discussed informally the various aid approaches. They have few options. The first two deal with the recipient - whether to help the recipient through capacity-building and project funding or to give more resources to the recipient directly. The latter option focuses on the assistance provided by international partners. To increase aid effectiveness, the recipient's cooperation is crucial. Rangoon must strengthen its governance system to increase confidence among donors. These international partners include Asean, which still needs to build up its capacity for emergency response and aid management. The main objective is to "build-back-better" the devastated country.
The Burmese regime understands the donor-recipient relationship and psyche very well. It definitely will try its best to take advantage and put a positive spin on everything. That was the reason the regime asked the international community for $11.7 billion to rebuild the country. This amount will be impossible to attain if the junta remains as intransigent and mischievous as it has been.
When Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan visited last week to appeal to Prime Minister Thein Sein for more access to the Irrawaddy basin for international relief workers, he said the rescue and relief operation had already been completed. In other words, there was no longer any need to reach affected areas around Bogale, Kyaiklat, Mawlamyinegyun anymore. The emergency phase of the operation was over.
Surin told a press conference that Burma had a credibility problem regarding the casualty statistics and aid efforts. He urged the junta to provide substantive figures and plans so that the international community could take up further assistance efforts.
Later on, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon flew into Rangoon and met Burmese supremo General Than Shwe, who told him that all aid workers of any nationality would be allowed in. The general's promise obviously trumped what Thein Sein told Surin.
At the moment, there are three logistic hubs at Labutta, Bogale and Pathein from which the international relief agencies can operate to deliver aid to victims in the Irrawaddy area. But the distribution of relief supplies has been slowed by heavy rains and lack of means of transportation.
According to an authoritative US assessment, more lives could be saved just by allowing deliveries of food, water, medical supplies and building materials by air and water. Burma's internal distribution capacity from Rangoon and within the affected areas is extremely limited. There are six medium-sized and 16 smaller cargo helicopters. The combined delivery capacity per day is around 188 tonnes, which is far short of adequate.
The US, UK and France have warships loaded with food and water anchored off the Burmese coast, just waiting for permission to help the devastated delta. The US joint task force cargo delivery system, which was noted for its rapid mobilisation of relief following the 2004 tsunami, has the capacity to lift around 770 tonnes per day, nearly four times as much Burma's. Despite this, the junta has rejected assistance from the US force.
As of this weekend, the UN said 42 per cent of the people affected by the cyclone had received some form of emergency aid. But in the 15 worst affected townships, only 23 per cent had been reached. For example, around 33 per cent of the Irrawaddy district's population of 1.4 million had not been reached and were inaccessible by road. At least half a million people there need immediate assistance or else they could die of hunger and disease.
During his meeting with Ban on Friday, Than Shwe expressed concern about the presence of several US ships in the Andaman Sea and said they should leave. He then promised to allow all relief workers entry into Burma. Permission will be given to relief agencies that submit specific mission objectives and timeframes.
But when Surin met Thein Sein earlier, he got a different take on Burma's willingness to accept foreign relief workers. The premier told him that the emergency phase of the operation was over. Ban's visit was more positive, with a display of more flexibility by Burma. Are the junta leaders trying to exploit Asean and the UN by pitting one against the other?
If that is the case, it is imperative that both organisations work in tandem and cross-check every detail of all agreements and pledges regarding the delivery and allocation of aid.