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He expressed confidence that Asean would rise to the challenge.

The challenge that will be discussed by Asean foreign ministers at a special meeting in Singapore today includes immediate, medium-term and long-term strategies to rehabilitate the Irrawaddy Delta and the millions of Burmese affected by the cyclone. Some of these can only be handled by Asean, while others involving sophisticated or large-scale assistance will require cooperation from the international community. Given the extent of the devastation and the nature of the rogue Burmese regime, it is important to have a balanced and effective approach to save lives.

Two assessments on the ground, one prepared by the Asean Secretariat and the other by the Burmese junta, will form the gist of the input, though other reports by UN-related agencies and international relief organisations will also be considered.

The first task is to come up with reliable statistics of people killed and affected, and an estimate of total assistance required. Rangoon's figure of deaths reached nearly 78,000 over the weekend, with another 56,000 listed as missing. Various UN and international relief agencies say the death toll is at least three times higher, in excess of 230,000, and put the number of people affected at two million.

Experts from John Hopkins University's School of Public Health said last week as many as 3.2 million Burmese have been affected, based on their own research. The toll is expected to rise due to the slow distribution of aid and relief efforts.

The second task is the division of labour between Asean and the international community. This is a sensitive but important step that can impact on the overall relief operation in months and years to come. There is immediate assistance that Asean as a whole and its individual members can provide. In the past 10 days they have provided both limited numbers of rescue teams, including doctors, as well as food supplies and cash, but it is inadequate.

At present, the Asean Disaster Management and Emergency Response agreed on in July 2005 is the only framework that the grouping can use to tackle natural disasters. When earthquakes rocked Yogyakarta and central Java in May 2006, relief and rescue teams from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand sprang into action within hours. It will be clear from the Asean Emergency Rapid Assessment team that the grouping does not have the long-term capacity, capabilities or resources to handle natural disasters of this scale. As such, Asean needs help from the so-called non-Asean entities.

Burma and Asean do make distinctions between members of the international community and their future involvement. The first tier is made up of Asian dialogue partners such as Japan, China and India, which are crucial in gaining the Burmese junta's trust. After the cyclone, Rangoon was more lenient in issuing visas to Asians. Japan has the financial resources while China and India share common borders that can facilitate future humanitarian assistance. Their support is pivotal. Over the weekend, officials from the Asean Secretariat were allowed to visit the delta.

The second tier includes Western countries such as the US, EU, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They have both the expertise and resources, but their much-needed assistance, in the Asean collective view, is problematic. The regime would rather see its people die than face political uncertainty.

Finally, the third tier comprises UN-related and international relief organisations and international financial institutions. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been snubbed repeatedly by the junta. However, other UN agencies such as the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance, Unicef and the World Food Programme already have their officials on the ground.

Since the UN is planning an emergency summit on the Burmese cyclone, the world body is following the outcome of the Singapore meeting today. They have to work in tandem, with programmes that are complementary. Whatever the future plans are, Asean has to do away with its "Asean-knows-best" mindset.

Asean must show competency in leading an international effort to help the cyclone's victims without being manipulated by the junta. Asean must press Burma for quick admission of aid, otherwise it will face difficulty in getting the UN and the international community to rally behind it.