Is the us deep into recession?

   Economists Irwin Kellner of Capital One Bank, David Wyss of Standard & Poor's Corp, Chris Lafakis of Moody's Economy.com and Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial spoke with Newsday:

Is the economy headed for a breaking point?

If "breaking point" means a "deep recession", the answer is yes. But no one knows the "magic" number for a crude oil price that would tip the economy into the soup. What's clear, says Lafakis, is that oil's rise from $70 to $120 this year has left American consumers with $250 billion less to spend on anything other than fuel.

Why is it so difficult to calculate how expensive oil has to get before an economic meltdown?

It's not just a matter of oil's price. The faster the rise, the bigger the shock to the system. Kellner thinks oil would have to quadruple overnight for an economic repeat of the mid '70s.

From $100 in January to $120 in May seems pretty quick. Is there any reason for economic optimism?

The federal government's economic stimulus package, and possible future actions such as gas tax holidays, tend to soften the blow. "We're trying to buy time to get through this," said Swonk. Further, SUVs are languishing on dealer lots while smaller cars are flying off them. Americans are burning about 1.5 per cent less gas now than at this time last year, a dramatic reversal of the 1.5 per cent annual growth of recent years. That could exert downward pressure on prices.

But recession still is a worry?

Not just a worry but here right now, say some economists, including Wyss, because the economy is dealing not just with rising oil prices but with weak job growth and the housing crisis.

What would a meltdown be like?

It wouldn't be pretty. Kellner says inflation, now 4 per cent annually, would hit 10 per cent.