Winds of change may finally blow through burma politics

Fallen leaves swept to the side of the road were a sign of the recent clean-up effort after the most powerful cyclone that locals could remember struck the Burmese city on Friday night, turning Rangoon into something like a war-zone.

Monday was the first day air transport re-opened after the cyclone struck the former capital city. The scene was completely different from four days before.

The biggest Burmese city was still in a state of shock and people were just starting to recover from the nightmare for which they had no warning. A businessman from Bangladesh said he'd experienced a few cyclones in his country, but most times the government was able to warn people. But here in Burma, there was no government warning. Even during the weekend when the whole town was still in shock, state television ran soaps or programmes with artists singing and dancing. The programmes depicted a very different picture from the reality that Burmese people were facing.

While the devastating cyclone was one of the worst to hit Burma, the country is about to experience another upheaval ... politically. The junta has scheduled May 10 to hold a referendum on the constitution. But the aftermath of the cyclone has left many doubting if the referendum would now take place on schedule. As of going to press, the government announced the referendum for affected townships would now be held on May 24.

The cyclone struck about the same time as the government was scheduled to announce the eligible voters for each polling station.

In the old town of Inn Wa, which escaped the storm, a small community was well prepared for the referendum.

On May 3, they put up a board to announce the list of eligible voters in the village. Crowds from Letpanpya, a small village on the way from Pagan to Mandalay, gathered early in the morning to listen to officials from the central administration talk about the referendum. There were small billboards with cartoons featuring Burmese wearing sarongs casting their ballots. The message from the junta was clear and simple. Just tick to accept the referendum. State-run media New Light of Myanmar in its front page banner said: "Let us all cast a "yes" vote in the national interest."

Although small towns outside Rangoon seemed ready to proceed with the referendum, the tragedy in Rangoon and the Irrawaddy Delta area made the prospect uncertain whether they would be ready, even in a couple of weeks.

Rangoon and the low-lying areas comprise the rice bowl of the country, accounting for 70 per cent of rice production. The cyclone hit when the second  rice crop was about to be harvested. The effects of the cyclone will create uncertainty for rice production in the months ahead. Most rice paddies outside Rangoon were covered with the remains of bamboo huts. More than 10 million residents of the delta area are estimated to have been adversely affected. People are naturally more concerned with food and shelter rather than the referendum.  

After all, people in the city are already bearing the brunt. The price of rice has shot up from 1,300 kyat (Bt6,400) per 2 kilograms. The price of a duck egg rose from 100 kyat to 250 kyat in less than a week. 

On Monday, vehicles were queuing to refill their tanks after petrol stations opened for the first time since the cyclone. The government has limited the sale of petrol to 3 litres per car per day. In a small lane close to Sule Pagoda in Rangoon, people were carrying empty containers to a nearby hospital, which is one of the government stations distributing water to the public. The government said electricity supplies would be out of service for one month. The public water supply is running but the water is brown. A young Burmese lady said the government's relief effort was slow.

Now the question is what will be the consequences from the cyclone on Burmese politics. After all, economic hardship has been a major factor triggering the major political movements in Burma. A sudden demonetisation of the currency in 1987 left millions impoverishedand led to mass demonstrations in 1988 with  the sharp rise in the price of rice from 5 kyat to 15 kyat per two kilograms.

The "Saffron demonstration" in September last year was largely a result of the government's decision to lift petrol prices twice from 180 kyat to 1,500 kyat in 2005; and 1,500 to 1,800 kyat in 2007.

Now that Burma is about to face more economic hardship caused by the unexpected natural disaster during one of the most critical periods politically, the burning question  is - what will happen next?