• 
• 

Over the past weeks, there have been talks about a coup in different circumstances. Some people scoffed at such a suggestion as wild and unthinkable in light of the military's retreat from active politics.

Realists or pessimists refused to reject such a possibility outright after experiencing such seizures of power by the military, unhappy with an unstable political situation, blatant corruption by politicians, or by whatever reasons cited for the putsch.

After each coup, and the troops' return to barracks, it was said that such use of force to change a government should be the last. Coups are an outdated mode of political change, condemned by the international community, pundits usually claim.

Each time, they were proven wrong by real events. There was always a new claim, excuse, or provocation for the military to act. Each one left a different scar on the country's political history.

The new rumours came too soon, not even before the Samak government completed its first 100 days in office. They began with idle talk and wishful thinking resulting from frustration over the despicable conduct of wild-eyed politicians, whose arrogance knows no bounds.

They are the same politicians who have had experience of being toppled by military coup, and still refuse to learn the bitter lesson due to the idea that their bold challenge through insolence and audacity would not be answered by extreme measures.

This time, the latest coup rumours were fanned by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej through his Sunday radio talk show. He even made startling revelations that Cabinet members would be captured and herded onto helicopters to unknown destinations.

Why so? Samak did not elaborate, and he just left it at that, like a cliff hanger thriller, with an untold climax.

His way of telling the coup plot, with traces of sarcasm in his tone, made the audience think that he did not believe one bit of the rumour. He even jeered at the idea of a coup. "Would they have the nerve to do it again, so soon?"

Oddly, there were mixed responses from the generals. Those who were ambiguous just uttered a few non-committal sentences, not rejecting and not admitting anything. They were playing safe, obviously, keeping all options open. These groups are usually going along with their comrades-in-arms when persuaded to join the real action. Not the leaders, just those who do not want to disappoint friends or create an atmosphere of distrust during testing times.

The commanders who shot down the coup rumours too quickly are traditionally the ones who decide on the real action. They are highly suspect and should be watched closely to see whether their devious moves lead to the order for the troops to move. Did Samak and his fellow Cabinet members have sufficient reason to worry about being unceremoniously booted out? If they are honest with themselves, they should admit that there are some grounds for concern.

Whether it was habitual bravado or real courage, Samak made it clear that he would not flinch or be discouraged from the all-out drive to amend the charter, come hell or high water.

The attempt to push through constitutional amendments at any cost by the People Power Party is the prime reason. There are also other factors such as the repeated demeaning of revered institutions, the national flag and other conspiratorial moves.

All combined, it is not easy to pinpoint which one will end up being the last straw. Not that there were just rumours of a coup, there was conjecture over which side will launch a preemptive strike.

Thaksin's homecoming again on Sunday serves as another variable. He is in a hurry to end the ongoing legal process to bring him to criminal trial for several cases of malfeasance and corruption during his premiership. His presence is needed to decide who should be House Speaker and approve new moves.      

What comes next is an inevitable political confrontation. Those against the charter amendments will risk facing pro-Thaksin political goons spoiling for violent street clashes. The showdown could be quite messy.  

If the crisis gets out of control and the anti-riot police fail to quell any upheaval, then it is not difficult to predict the unfolding consequences of the power play. It does not have to be a coup in the true sense of the word this time around.