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Back in 2006, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was pushing for the removal of Thaksin Shinawatra, then prime minister, from office. Thaksin was accused of presiding over a corrupt government. His family's sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore further fuelled suspicions that Thaksin was running the country for his own business interests. The Thai establishment did not trust him; neither did the Bangkok middle class.

The street demonstrations, with a general election and awkward by-elections in the interval, dragged on for the better part of the year until September. By that time, the situation had reached a dead end. The anti-Thaksin rallies would not die down until he resigned from office. In the meantime, Thaksin refused to resign because he insisted that he had done nothing wrong.

Had the confrontation continued along its natural course, it could have only led to a physical clash between the PAD and government forces, if not Thaksin supporters. Only bloodshed would have brought political change. Thaksin was also keen to declare a state of emergency. This would have permitted the military to come out of its barracks and put the situation under control. It would also have allowed Thaksin to round up all his political enemies. It was a dangerous end game for both sides.

Taking advantage of Thaksin's official trip to deliver a speech at United Nations headquarters in New York, the military, led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, staged a bloodless coup. In a way, the coup prevented bloodshed. You have to understand that the Thai establishment, or the phuyai in our country, would never want or allow Thais to kill each other on the streets.

Now almost two years have passed since the coup, but we are back to almost the same situation. Thaksin's nominees are back to power under the guise of the People Power Party. The military was badly outwitted in the political field. The Surayud government was good at doing nothing. Thaksin's nominees won the December 2007 election by controlling almost half the House of Representatives.

Samak Sundaravej thought that he was recruited by the People Power Party as a spare part to serve as an opposition leader in Parliament. He ended up becoming prime minister, something beyond his wildest dreams.

Thaksin's nominees are responsible for creating the political tension this time.

They would like to amend the 2007 Constitution, passed by the country's first-ever national referendum, because they consider it undemocratic or inspired by the military.

But there are two underlying objectives for the proposed amendment. First, it is aimed at helping the 111 former executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai return to political power. They have been banned from politics for five years after the Constitution Tribunal found that the executives committed electoral fraud. The Thai Rak Thai was also dissolved. The 111 executives are still the real power movers and shakers in Thai politics.

Second, the Constitution rewrite is also aimed at nullifying all the agencies or legal bindings created under the previous government. This is most critical. For it would help Thaksin escape all of the corruption cases against him. Thaksin must have realised that he would have a slim chance of prevailing in all of these cases. A single court ruling would finish him forever.

These two issues are the main focus of Thaksin's nominees at the moment. This represents a "silent coup" through parliamentary means. They will play hardball politics to get the Constitution amended at any cost. This would hasten the dissolution of the House to pave the way for a fresh election and the return of the banned 111 to political power.

The PAD regrouped again last Friday for the first time since the coup. If Thaksin's nominees go ahead and rewrite the constitution, the PAD would stage street demonstrations again.

The stakes are high for both sides, causing fear that there might be physical clashes along the way. The military has realised that they stepped out too soon in the September 2006 coup to pre-empt the bloodshed. The military has learned its lesson. They will not come out easily this time.

So will the coup happen again? It depends on your definition of a coup. Thaksin's nominees are already trying to stage a silent coup in Parliament by rewriting the whole Constitution to whitewash their past. If this were to happen, it would lead to street demonstrations. And if there were bloodshed on the streets, the military would have no choice but to return to the fore - this time under the pretext of a state of emergency.

By that time we would know the final outcome of the political battle that has been fought over the past two years.