Cost of rice is a classic 'bread and butter' issue

Achara Deboonme

achara_d@nationgroup.com

To date, since February, all they have heard about is the giddy rise in rice prices. Confirming this is Vietnam's winning bid to sell the lowest-quality rice to the Philippines at a price of more than US$1,000 (Bt31,700) per tonne.

To Ammar, agricultural commodities tend to suffer from falling prices and the current hikes are unusual. He should be glad to know that he is not the only one with this view.

Kim-ang Phongnarai, a farmer in Chai Nat, said at a seminar on Monday that second-crop rice farmers were enjoying the high prices, given the cost of about Bt4,000 a rai against the selling price of Bt10,000. However, he cautioned that in future crops, farmers could face losses. Fertilisers are more expensive, oil prices are high and pushing up tractor rents, and rice-field rents have already moved up from Bt1,500 to Bt2,000 a year.

In this situation, if the price falls or Thailand faces natural disasters or disease outbreaks, farmers would suffer huge losses.

We all know that the current crisis is largely driven by drought in various rice-growing countries due to the effects of global warming.

This year, those countries suffer and Thailand gains. What if one year, the wind direction changes and brings with it drought to the Kingdom?

At the seminar, Vitoon Panyakul of Green Net, the first national organic-food distributor in Thailand, summed up what other countries are facing: as wheat output is damaged, Indians are encouraged to eat rice. Australia has suffered from drought for three years while Ecuador is witnessing rice shortages. Vietnam halted exports due to storms that destroyed rice fields.

As such, while the global supply has remained at about 420 million tonnes over the past two years, demand has shot up from 417 million tonnes to 424 million tonnes. Like oil and other commodities, amid tight supply, prices rise.

How long will this last? Some exporters said the situation should continue for the next few years.

Hmm, if that's the case, how much would a plate of steamed rice cost? A shop at the food court at Seri Centre recently doubled the rice price to Bt10. If the price continues to rise, could it hit Bt20? A meal then would cost no less than Bt60 per person. How will a family of three survive if only the father works as a low-paid labourer?

SMS responses on TV programmes show that the public is more concerned about rice than the political wrangling on proposed amendments to the Constitution. This is a classic bread-and-butter issue.