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Published on April 22, 2008

SOPON ONKGARA

SOPON@NATIONGROUP.COM

The Nation

 Yet his deeds speak louder than words and contradict the claim that he has no more political ambition. With the crowds and monks braving the hot weather to please him in northeastern provinces yesterday - showing he is still the darling of the have-nots - Thaksin would find it difficult not to succumb to political temptations. There will always be the excuse that he cannot resist the people's plea for him to be saviour with various populist programmes.

What he tried to achieve during his merit-making tour of four northeastern provinces was to strengthen his political base in the poverty-stricken region. Visiting temples and listening to sermons was designed to eliminate misfortune and gain supernatural support. His plan is to visit 99 temples in all regions but the South. This is understandable, for he is not popular there, and quite unwelcome. The tour will keep him in the news, reminding friends and foes alike that he is still someone to be reckoned with.

That signal could be directed at his nominee, PM Samak Sundaravej - that the top job could be terminated any time. In the past few weeks, party members have shown enough disrespect, making the party leader accept the reality of his figurehead status.

Why would Thaksin need more blessings from monks? In his subconscious, he must be pestered by past sins. The most damnable of all was his war against narcotics, during which more than 2,500 people lost their lives in extrajudicial killings. Those deaths were compounded by the culling of millions of birds during the bird-flu outbreaks. That was during the peak of his power and arrogance. The extermination of drug peddlers or carriers of disease, still means killing - and that's against Buddhist precepts.

Can he really expect to gain from merit-making? Psychologically, he might believe that sins have been diluted by the sprinkling of sacred water over him, and the donations he made to temples. What he actually gained might have been reduced by the suffering he intentionally or otherwise caused to thousands in the four provinces he visited, for they had to withstand the scorching sun. Still, there were those willing to be seen greeting Thaksin wherever he went. Being recognised could mean bright prospects for promotion in the future through a display of loyalty. That's why present and former Cabinet members were also present.

What happened here was rare in any developed political society. After all, he is still accused of criminal wrongdoing and will be tried in at least two courts of law. Cabinet members and senior civil servants show no qualms or conscience by consorting with a notorious public figure charged with corruption and malfeasance. Thaksin wants to whitewash the public's perception of the legal charges. There are more cases to be filed, resulting from impropriety in office while he was PM. All the cases are high profile and demeaning to his dignity. They are the prime reason for the freezing of his assets. 

It could be just part of his grand plan to regain power. With an exceptional flair in political marketing, yesterday's PR stunt reminds his adversaries that he is far from being down and out. On the contrary he still has various options for a strong comeback.

But Thaksin does not have the luxury of time, and the process of attempted constitutional change will take months. There are many formidable obstacles and dangerous turns. There is one short cut - equally dangerous but tempting and less time-consuming: the same method that ousted him. Thaksin can do it with his unmatched war chest and power structure. It can be done because the stakes are high enough - freedom from legal troubles and possible imprisonment, not to mention the return of his Bt62 billion.

Financing a putsch, greasing the hands of potential military commanders, offers a high degree of hope for success despite the great risks involved. The country would be like Burma for several months, but soon enough it should be restored

to normal.  This is just a confirmation of the rumours of a coup several weeks ago. It is just a question of who will do it.

First, the justification for such a drastic measure would follow violence in the streets. It's not difficult to create a flash point, especially given the political confrontation widely expected to take place in the next few months, resulting from the push for constitutional amendment. Of course, this scenario sounds highly remote if not impossible - until it becomes reality.