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Published on April 18, 2008

Thai Rath warned of looming food crises in countries such as Egypt, Haiti, the Philippines and Bangladesh.

Thai Rath said that rising food prices are a result of higher prices for oil, fertiliser and transport and a lower supply of farm produce as a result of global warming. The rice price rose to a record 20-year high because of drastic weather conditions abroad and hoarding at home.

Thai Rath said that previous governments tended to face the problem of low rice prices by spending massively to help farmers with rice pledging programmes. But most of the benefits went to politicians or people with political connections.

This government, however, must deal with the problem by other means. It has to show its ability to ensure that farmers also gain from higher rice prices. This bullish trend in farm produce does not come around very often, perhaps once a decade. The government must make sure that farmers are not taken unfair advantage of again.

At the same time, the government should look after people who are adversely affected if rice becomes exorbitantly expensive.

If the government lets a food crisis happen here in the world's biggest rice exporter, it may encourage groups to stage protests similar to those seen in some other countries. Thais are unlikely to forgive the government if such a crisis happens because we don't have a shortage of rice as many other countries do.

The only challenge we have is whether the government will be able to properly manage the rice market. The test has already begun.

Khao Sod meanwhile ran an article entitled "This year, a good rice price. But how about next year?"

Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan tried to give a picture of how good the rice market was this year by saying that Bangkok may face a shortage of household domestics because these workers, most of them from upcountry, might decide to quit their city jobs to go back to farming because of the better returns.

This is a good news for Thai society, because most of the population is still in rice farming. But at the same time, we should learn something from the nature of farm produce, said Khao Sod.

The daily paper said that the price of farm products fluctuates. Once the rice price rises, farmers will plant more rice, leading to an increased supply. The rice price would thus drop later.

The government, exporters, middle-men, rice millers and farmers all will have to find answers on how to prevent the cyclical downturn in the rice price.

If the government miscalculates the situation, farmers might not be able to fully benefit from the rising price. They may be led to believe that the rice price will remain high for years and they might overspend. This would create more financial burdens for them in the future.

Negative signs have already been seen. First, the price of fertilisers and other chemicals hasn't shown a downward trend because of the high oil price. Secondly, the Irrigation Department predicted that, based on the current level of rain, it may be able to supply water for only 3 million rai of second-crop plantation, compared to 8.8 million rai this year.

This is the problem the government should tackle to lessen the burden on farmers.