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Published on April 15, 2008

 To a certain extent, their courage was a mild surprise after earlier vacillation.

Somchai Juengprasert, the lone dissenter, has always been the odd man out in the EC with his weird reasoning and arguments, which make the public wonder whether he understands his responsibility to ensure justice prevails.

The EC could not have made another ruling. With evidence of vote-buying that was so damning, it did not have other options or legal leeway. Yet, its decision must still be passed by the Constitution Court for final judgement.

This was enough to serve as a warning for the People Power Party that its fate is hanging by a thin thread and that it's just a matter of time and formalities before it suffers the same fate as its coalition partners. Senior People Power Party members must have been surprised by the EC's gall in punishing political miscreants in power.

The wrongdoings committed by the Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties were kid's stuff compared with the charges of electoral law violations leveled against the People Power Party. The dissolution of the People Power Party is inevitable if the EC still has the nerve to take a moral stance.

What can be expected from now on then? There will be more desperate attempts for survival by the three parties, of course, not only by hook or by crook, but by whatever means possible. Never mind political or legal scruples. The end will justify the means, so to speak.

The struggles will include a rush to do away with the present Constitution and replace it with the previous one scrapped during the coup. They will make some changes to suit their liking, repealing whatever clauses and restrictions they please. In a nutshell, they want to get rid of a Constitution hostile to crooked politicians and write a new one that accommodates gutter and crony politics.

This has become blatant. Retroactively legalising the crimes already committed for self-serving purposes should be regarded as not only totalitarian but against all kinds of principles in a civil society.

Desperate people resort to desperate measures for survival and politicians are no exception. They would go to any length just to avoid punishment. To be on the safe side, new parties have been formed for a subsequent transformation. There is even a plan for a merger of the three parties if they all suffer the same fate.

Yet, it will take quite some time, possibly months, for legal proceedings to lead to a final verdict, which means that from now on the Samak government would be like a lame-duck administration. This would not be much different from the situation now after two months of a lacklustre performance in office. Much time has been wasted due to nonsensical acts and clowning.

The political situation will heat up. The People Power Party and its coalition partners will call for sympathy from urban admirers and grass-roots supporters, blaming everything but their own mischief-making. The hard push to repeal the Constitution will face opposition, primarily from the People's Alliance for Democracy, which has been vocal against the charter change.

Then political confrontation in street demonstrations will become inevitable. Whether this will lead to violence between the two factions depends on the intensity of the conflict. If the side supporting the People Power Party spoils for a fight with provocative acts, as has happened several times, then physical clashes and street fights would become a reality.

That's not a situation our country should be in. Somehow, violence following a political confrontation is waiting to happen. All the factors and ingredients are already in place. An invisible hand, which Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has always blamed, or the third hand - the culprit of all wrongful acts - will have to face accusations.

The man who can still prevent this dreadful scenario is Samak himself. He too has to fight for his own survival. He awaits a ruling from the Appeals Court over a two-year jail term for libel. He stands to face criminal charges related to the procurement of fire-fighting equipment as well. But his most crucial fight is within People Power Party.

In the past few weeks, Samak must have fully realised that he is a mere figurehead following months as Thaksin Shinawatra's nominee as party leader. This could be ascertained by the growing indifference and lack of respect with which party members treat him, understanding as they do that he is not the one with the real power.

He likely feels lonely at the top despite his bravado and tough talk. All along, he has tried to portray himself as the man who calls the shots, but its hardly been convincing. His trump card is his ability to dissolve the House and send all members packing for a new general election.

It is time for Samak to decide whether he will maintain independence and be his true self, serving the public interest, or do what a nominee does for his paymaster by carrying out his instructions even if they are harmful to national security. He can still salvage his pride and sense of patriotism if he prevents political conflicts and violent confrontations.

A disturbing question is whether he can distinguish between national interests and his own survival.

Sopon Onkgara

The Nation