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Published on April 12, 2008

That amount cannot get you very far in Bangladesh, where 45 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line.

From businessmen to technocrats, all have repeatedly stressed the country has a lot of potential if only its growth were not marred by dirty politics and natural disasters.

"The confrontational politics plus the cyclones have so badly affected the country," said Asian Development Bank (ADB) country director Hua Du.

She said tough rivalry between two major parties - the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Awami League - had rendered its 150 million people helpless victims of corruption, violence and extreme politicking.

In 2005, a caretaker government took over following a suicide bombing. The two parties were outlawed and their leaders rounded up and charged with corruption.

Khaleda Zia of the BNP, the country's first woman prime minister, and Sheikh Hasina Wazed of the Awami League, prime minister from 1996 to 2001, remain under house arrest.

The caretaker government is now headed by former World Bank economist Fakhruddin Ahmed, who took over after his predecessor stepped down in January 2007, due to what many believe was pressure from the military.

Under Ahmed's leadership, the government is paving the way for elections in December and working on completing an ambitious and rigorous voting system that requires qualified voters to register under a national ID system.

"We are now at an important, interesting time in Bangladesh," Ahmed told editors of the Asia News Network during an official visit to his office.

"Some may even describe it as difficult times as our people try to move towards the future."

He explained that the delay in the elections, which were supposed to have been held in 2006, was due primarily to questions about the accuracy of the voter list.

He said that at the moment the Election Commission had already covered half of the voting population.

Much is riding on this election, which many hope will steer Bangladesh in the right direction.

"The December election is crucial for the country, because it will lay the foundations of a democratic government to continue the efforts, including economic reforms, initiated by the caretaker government," said the ADB's Hua.

She said many leaders of the major political parties would likely be prevented from standing, but that it remained to be seen whether a new leadership would emerge after the polls.

Swedish Ambassador Britt Hagstrom said while elections were "essential in ensuring sustainable democracy in Bangladesh, as everywhere in the world", they were not enough for a country to develop.

"A proper balance between the executive power, the legislative [branch] and a well-functioning, independent judiciary is also essential for the development of a democratic society," she said.

"Under these conditions only can investors start taking a serious interest in the country, but even then some of Bangladesh's leading businessmen are optimistic that there is no way to go but up."

"Bangladesh is a country of opportunity," said Annisul Huq, chairman of the Mohammadi Group and newly elected president of the country's Chamber of Commerce.

"We have to change the brand name of the country. The politics are changing. People are changing."

In a study on Bangladesh's growth and investment opportunities, AT Capital Research said the paradox about Bangladesh was how its economy had been resilient in the face of natural disasters, poor governance and political volatility.

"In effect, an entrepreneurial private-sector base has compensated for a less supportive macropolitical environment," it said.

Many are optimistic Bangladesh can rank among middle-income countries - whose per capita income is about $875 - by 2021, citing a young population and its strategic location between China and India, two of Asia's fastest-growing economies.

Nasim Manzur, managing director of leather-shoe manufacturer Apex Tanneries, said Bangladesh should look at China and India not as competitors, but rather as a market. He said when it came to shoes, China had become a factory of the world, providing 8 per cent of global production.

With this overdependency on China, he proposed a "New China + 2" sourcing strategy with India - and Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh contending for second place.

AT Capital said Bangladesh's growth would depend largely on its ability to attract foreign direct investment to help build infrastructure and productive capacity.

The study said the government should be able to create an enabling environment for investment to prosper, both foreign and domestic.

The chief adviser acknowledged that holding a free, fair, transparent and credible election would take Bangladesh out of its rut and was the only way to achieve sustainable democracy.

Yasmin Lee Arpon

Asia News Network

Dhaka