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Published on April 8, 2008

Samak could have projected his leadership in any manner to ensure stability. But he has chosen to take on the rewriting of the charter, which is seen as a highly controversial move that could backfire and bring about the prime minister's downfall.

To the uninitiated, Samak's political gambit does not make sense. Government politicians think otherwise. They do not just cheer him for courting a head-on collision with opponents, but work overtime to fuel the raging confrontation.

Within just a few weeks, the government has managed to attract massive opposition and create a situation that has all the hallmarks of what happened before the Thaksin administration was ousted from power in 2006.

Samak and his coalition allies are playing a high-risk, high-stakes game to ride out a political whirlwind, which can either catapult the government into the stratosphere of power or pummel it to a pulp.

It will soon be seen whether the Samak government ends up as a powerhouse or a listing ship. Regardless of the outcome of the charter rewrite, the People Power Party is likely to stay in power.

The debate on constitutional changes has picked up momentum since last month. Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa made the initial move by alluding to a possible conspiracy to disband his party, as well as the People Power and Matchima Thipataya parties.

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee sounded the alarm about the eroding investment climate due to the political uncertainty relating to the legal wrangling over electoral fraud.

Samak joined in the fray and spearheaded the move to amend the charter, which he said was being manipulated by an "invisible hand" to undermine his government.

Initially, his top priority was rewriting Article 327, the clause on party dissolution, although the government would later address other "controversial" provisions. Last week, he modified his stance so that it fell in line with amendments propagated by his party.

He said he no longer opposed the rewrite of Article 309, a key provision confirming the legal shield granted to the junta and its activities, including the formation of the Assets Examination Committee, the anti-graft body dealing with cases involving Thaksin.

It is strange but true that he and his party are like a body with two heads when it comes to discussing constitutional changes. Leading party figures, such as PM's Office Minister Choosak Sirinin, appear to have worked out their plans ahead of him.

The prime minister and his main coalition party have pleaded for public support by showing their willingness to overhaul the charter in order to accomplish what they described as the advancement of democracy and the elimination of the junta's influence on the political system.

The government is not too coy to admit having self-preservation as a goal even though it prefers to portray itself as the torchbearer for democratic rule. Hence it has relegated its opponents to the role of dictatorship sympathisers.

Although the government has attracted a fair share of supporters, the opposition movement is growing by leaps and bounds. The government's propaganda about the struggle between democracy vs dictatorship appears unconvincing.

Samak may have a reasonable claim that in order to do his job, he and his allies need to stay in power. But many see a conflict of interest when the government is trying to fix the game by changing the rules.

Judging from the war of words between the government and its opponents, it is likely that the rewrite process, if begun, will be lengthy and acrimonious. It will not be swift and smooth, as coalition MPs have predicted.

Yet, the government is determined to plough on with the constitutional changes.

Samak has complained time and again about his government being the victim of political bullying. When in hot water or facing a looming problem, he is quick to pass the blame.

Right before setting charter amendments as his top agenda, rumours spread that his main coalition party was dissatisfied with his leadership and that the party was searching for a new leader; one of the contenders was Surapong.

Samak's spearheading the move to rewrite the charter has conveniently buried such rumours. The charter debate has in turn delegated to back pages other bad news, such as the soaring price of food and the dilemma facing rice farmers who cannot increase production because of lack of water and expensive fertiliser,.

With attention focused solely on the charter rewrite, the government seems to have escaped the wrath of having no tangible achievements.

To many, the charter rewrite may be a deadly political storm, but to Samak and his allies, it is a convenient diversion from all other problems. The government is building a bigger fire to fight an existing one.

Should the fire threaten to burn down the stage, the People Power Party always has Samak to offer up as its human sacrifice before starting the game anew under a new leader. If Samak manages to push through the constitutional changes, a toast is in order for him and the People Power Party.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation