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Published on April 1, 2008

The man who triggered the alarm was none other than the prime minister himself.

Another coup so soon? Coming from Samak many treated it as loose talk or a "cry-wolf" ploy to nip such a plot in the bud, if indeed there is one.

The prime minister was dead serious. Going by his habitual outspokenness and bluster, there might be some traces of truth in what he's saying and that could scare some faint-hearted politicians worried that they might not be able to recoup their investments in previous polls.

There were some peculiar aspects to his claim. Samak was quick to point out the coup he was talking about this time  has nothing to do with the armed forces. He also claimed to have evidence comprising the schemers and their timetable.

He did not show this information to anybody and refused to identify the plotters. Earlier, Samak insisted that all threats to his administration and the People Power Party came from an "invisible hand", which had been responsible for all sorts of ill-intended acts.

He also croaked that only the naive had no idea about the existence and identity of this person with the invisible hand. Yet, when pressed to disclose what he actually knew, Samak simply refused, as he has always done.

Samak obviously feared his loud-mouth talk about a coup plot might have offended the armed forces, especially Army Chief Anupong Paochinda.

The Army chief was quick to give his personal assurance that the Army would have nothing to do with such an attempt.

What Samak said was enough to raise concern among businesspeople and also complaints from his critics. The latter said it was too ridiculous to think of a coup being staged again, given the miserable failure resulting from the previous one.

But are there actually some elements of truth in what Samak was talking about, after all he has always been a master of survival in gutter politics? His resurrection from almost nothingness in his twilight years to the premiership was due to more than just sheer luck.

Coups in the past involved the armed forces, rogue military units, or the so-called "Young Turks", members of which are now in their seventies. Their fangs are loose and the fire in their bellies is almost extinguished, except for some hardcore members.

In the process, constitutions were abolished, which is a must, an indispensable ritual, so to speak.

For now that era is probably over, at least temporarily; however a coup can never be ruled out in our gutter politics. Like the saying goes "old soldiers never die, they just fade away". It is worthwhile to give some serious thought to the coup possibility.

Let's say both Samak and the Army chief were correct in what they said and in their assessment of the situation. To be realistic, a useless administration should be ousted, if not through elections then by whatever means for the sake of the people and their peace of mind.

With a government like this, looking very much like a rogues' gallery, it is very natural that more than one group of hot-headed soldiers would have talked about a coup, wishful thinking though it may be.

A society that could tolerate the present bunch of self-serving, opportunistic politicians, who waste taxpayers' time and money, would be very pathetic indeed. Patriots or just sane people should harbour deep concerns for the long-term stability of the country and discuss how this miserable circus should be terminated.

The armed forces or rogue military units won't do it, at least for now. That the Army chief can say with certainty.

There is another option to abolish the Constitution or make big chunks of it invalid, and this would not be by the armed forces. It could be the People Power Party and its coalition partners who do this through their majority vote in the House.

There have been many trial balloons floated concerning possible constitutional amendments, either focusing on some articles or invalidating the charter almost entirely, leaving just the section concerning the monarchy. In effect, the main part would be abolished, making this not so different from an actual coup.

A majority vote to change or abolish the core stipulations of the Constitution is tantamount to a lawful coup staged in the House. Was this why Samak rang the alarm bell?

Now the hard-core element in the People Power Party and cronies and loyalists of Thaksin Shinawatra are conspiring to achieve such a drastic amendment to the Constitution. We don't have to call it a coup, though it is not far from the actual practice.

All this could be wrong if a traditional coup materialises, hastened by the arrogance of power and the speed of self-destructive mischief-making among the politicians on centre stage. Such an act would be another in defiance of unrealistic optimists.

Sopon Onkgara

The Nation