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OUTSIDE VIEW

Alternatives to the flat record of the SET

When I started my first job at Bangkok Bank in 1989, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index ended that year at 879 points.

Published on March 24, 2008



Other markets' performances included the New York Stock Exchange, or Dow Jones, at 2,753 points, the German Stock Exchange (DAX) at 1,790, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Hang Seng Index) at 2,836, Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) at 909 and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) at 562.

Now, 19 years later the SET is still trading below that level. But other stock markets around the world have skyrocketed to new highs, while we remain stuck in the doldrums. Why is this?

In 1991, when I left to pursue my MBA at the University of Michigan, the SET Index stood at 711 points, while New York's Dow Jones was at 3,168 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index at 4,297. The Thai market had regressed while other stock markets moved higher.

At the end of last year, the SET Index closed at 858 points, while the Dow closed at 13,264, Germany's DAX closed at 8,067, the Hang Seng Index at 27,812, South Korea's Kospi at 1,897 and Malaysia's KLCI closed at 1,445.

Over 19 years, the Dow was five times higher, the DAX had quadrupled, the Hang Seng Index had grown 10 times, the Kospi had doubled and the KLCI had tripled.

Thailand's stock-market value remained static over the same period.

This means if you are my age of about 40-something, started investing 20 years ago and invested your savings in stock markets like the ones mentioned above, you would have made strong gains.

However, if you had invested in the Thai bourse, you would hardly have received any benefit.

I think Thai politics can largely be blamed for the extremely slow progress of the capital market, and there is nothing we can do about that.

However, one thing you can do is revise your investment strategy. You should put some of your investments abroad. It is never too late to start, and I would encourage you to put some of your savings into major stock markets abroad, such as the ones outlined above.

I remember that on a number of occasions three or four years ago, I tried to convince the Bank of Thailand to adjust foreign-exchange outflow regulations, in order to allow Thais to invest abroad, but this did not happen until last July.

Now there are many ways for you to invest in capital markets abroad. For example, you can invest through local mutual funds that offer participation in foreign-investment funds. Some mutual-fund companies are also planning to issue private funds for individuals to invest abroad.

And if the authorities continue to liberalise foreign investment regulations, Thais should be able to invest directly in foreign stock markets. We have already lost a lot of opportunities; now it is time to move quickly and decisively.

Chodechai Suwanaporn

The Nation



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