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Published on March 20, 2008

Samak's nightmares: he could be ousted from the top political post as a result of the series of pending cases against him. His People Power Party (PPP) could also be dissolved as a result of investigations by the National Election Commission.

The tell-tale signs came in his weekly television programme on Sunday. He made at least five references to "me being killed … and the PPP being hunted down" in his one-hour solo talk show.

Samak even broke into an old song about "the uncertain fate of human beings". He said he was facing an "uphill task" and was trying to battle against serious obstacles, not being sure whether he could eventually overcome great dangers that were looming above.

"I am now like a little boat floating in the sea," he declared.

This is double-speak in its most nuanced form. On the one hand, Samak wants to maintain a tough, devil-may-care public stand - that he can face down any political onslaught. In this sense, he was probably warning the agencies investigating his cases that political chaos will follow if they decide to get rid of him or his party.    

But on the other hand, Samak is also seeking sympathy from his supporters - or the "politically uncommitted" who might sympathise with his plight.

Deep down, Samak must realise that his political base within the PPP wasn't all that solid to begin with. In fact, certain factions within the party might be quietly hoping that the axe will fall on him, paving the way for changes that will boost their chances of rising to the top. 

By coincidence perhaps, ex-premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, who said he was probably Samak's "nominee" and not the other way round, told a group of insiders that his life at the moment was like "a boat floating in an ocean", not knowing when he can get ashore.

That sense of depression expressed by the former premier is in sharp contrast to his public show of  confidence and joviality since he returned home in late February to fight the series of corruption cases against him.

But once he has the opportunity to ponder the real implications of his future role, Thaksin may find that the odds against him aren't as simple to surmount as his lieutenants may want him to believe.

The legal battles promise to be long and arduous. His control over the Samak-led government isn't as effectively complete as his critics may fear. A good portion of his personal assets remains frozen. Any misstep in his non-political political role may land him in greater trouble.

Thaksin's concern is confounded by Samak's own political ambition. In some ways, Thaksin's loss of political freedom may be Samak's gain in consolidating his position.

While Thaksin's relations with the military establishment remain fluid, Samak's subtle move to create a closer personal rapport with the military leaders, most notably with Army chief, Gen Anupong Paochinda, may not necessarily work in Thaksin's favour.

The revived anti-Thaksin movement, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), has added another element of uncertainty. The group resumed its public activities before the Samak Cabinet could establish public confidence and while Thaksin is still working on ways to shake free of his political shackles.

A new round of confrontation between the pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin groups brings new dark clouds to an already overcast sky.

Samak and Thaksin both liken their current plight to being set afloat in a small boat on a stormy sea. Their fears, however, take different forms: one is scared of the boat sinking; the other isn't sure when or if he might return to shore again.

And, to add insult to injury,  there is nothing either of them can do to help the other.

yoon@nationgroup.com

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation