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Published on March 18, 2008

Ayudhya Securities predicts the daily trading average will rise to between Bt19 billion and Bt21 billion during this quarter, from Bt19 billion in the previous quarter. Annualised daily average turnover will be Bt19 billion, up 9 per cent from Bt17 billion last year.

In the first two months of this year, Kim Eng Securities enjoyed the biggest market share, at 8.54 per cent, followed by Phatra Securities at 5.77 per cent and Asia Plus at 5.45 per cent.

Last year, Kim Eng's share was 8.1 per cent, followed by 5.74 per cent for Asia Plus and 5.63 per cent for Phatra.

One analyst at Ayudhya Securi-ties predicts Kim Eng's net profit this year to be Bt632 million, down 1.3 per cent from its original estimate.

Its market share is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1 per cent this year, because it will maintain a commission of 0.24 per cent on trades.

"The market will remain volatile, due to internal and external factors," he said.

Last year, Kim Eng's brokerage income dropped to Bt1.62 billion, down 1.6 per cent from 2006. Its market share fell to 8.1 per cent, from 8.55 per cent before.

With lower operating expenses, however, it was able to post a 3-per-cent gain in earnings, which totalled Bt551 million last year.

For Phatra Securities, a Kim Eng analyst expects the company to post a net profit of Bt523 million this year, with an expected market share of 5.6 per cent, up 7.8 per cent from last year.

Phatra posted a net profit of 484.99 million last year, down 32.64 per cent from Bt720 million in 2006, attributable partially to a drop in brokerage income. Its market share was 5.63 per cent last year, down from 5.79 per cent in 2006.

Although daily transactions rose from Bt1.899 billion to Bt1.96 billion, the average commission was as low as 0.224 per cent, because it charged its exclusive partner Merrill Lynch only 0.126 per cent for transactions.

An analyst at Finansa Securities also expected Asia Plus to see a drop in brokerage fees and market share.

Although its brokerage fees are expected rise 3 per cent year on year on a higher daily average, its market share should drop from 5.75 per cent last year to 5.5 per cent.

Its commission should also fall from 0.224 per cent to 0.209 per cent, due to increased competition.

Still, thanks to a business restructuring begun last year, Asia Plus's net profit should remain unchanged at Bt444 million, he said.

 "There is no upside gain in the stock," said the analyst.

Last year, Asia Plus announced plans to lower revenue ratios from its brokering business from 66 per cent to 50 per cent in 2010. Other businesses - investment, asset management and investment banking - will rise accordingly.

It also plans to introduce better technology services at 25 branches.

Siriporn Chanjindamanee

The Nation