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Published on March 17, 2008

The SET has moved in a  range of 800-840 for six weeks with moderate daily turnover of about Bt15 billion.

I'm not sure which of the key factors affecting movemen has been the most important: local politics, oil prices or global turbulence brought on by the US debt crisis. But I sense that now that we have a new government, foreign investors are more favour-ably disposed toward Thailand. Feedback after they have met with key policy-makers and company executives has been very positive.

The US market should sustain over 11,500, at least in the short-term, given the bond yield of 1.6 per cent. The DJIA could sustain over 11,500 amid bad news - a good sign for the short term. I view that the market has in recent weeks ignored the surge in crude prices, perhaps fearing oil might not be sustainable at US$100. There appears to have been a decoupling between crude-oil price movements and oil-related stocks. This is an opportunity to buy. Our picks are PTT Exploration and Production, PTT and PTT Chemical.

Tisco Securities

The Federal Reserve's move on March 11 to pump up to $200 billion into credit markets briefly arrested the slide on Wall Street, helping US stocks register their biggest one-day gain in five years. However, the respite proved short-lived, with global stock markets soon coming under pressure from US recession fears amid a slumping dollar and a new rise in oil prices to $110 per barrel.

Consequently, we expect the SET Index to face a new test soon of the 800-support level despite recent positive news flow including the government's Bt40-billion economic stimulus package and the central bank's decision to scrap capital controls.

So far, the SET Index has proven remarkably resilient, falling just 5.1 per cent year-to-date versus a decline of 16.1 per cent in the MSCI Far East ex-Japan index. This is partially due to mounting evidence that the Thai economy is on the upswing despite a projected slowdown in exports in 2008, rising inflation and renewed political tensions.

The Thai market should maintain its outperformance against regional peers given the prospect of more stimulus packages from the government in the near future.

These in turn should lead to a revival in consumer and investment spending, thus benefiting domestic demand players such as banks, property and media. The latest jump in oil prices should also support heavyweight energy stocks.

Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai, executive director, Trinity Securities Research Department

Investor confidence is expected to be resilient this week, although fears are still not over.

We still slightly overweight on stocks related to domestic players, including Advanced Info Service, Quality Houses-Warrant 4, Siam Commercial Bank, Bangkok Bank and Italian-Thai Development.

We foresee good opportunities to receive dividends from big-cap companies, including PTT Aromatics and Refining, PTT Chemical and PTT before their excluding dividend (XD) dates. On March 18, PTT and PTT Chemical, which are the first and 10th market caps in the SET Index, will post an XD sign, and we estimate their XD will drag the index down by 3.33 points, or 0.4 per cent.

Concern is likely to focus on internal politics: whether the court rules to dissolve two parties (Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya).

We estimate the SET Index to have a support level at about 790-810 points and a resistance level at 840-850.

The possibility of a further US Federal Reserve rate cut at tomorrow's meeting bodes well for good sentiment for investment in the stock market.

As the expected poor results of many US financial institutions - which will be released during March 18-26 - have already been priced in, concerns of a new round of credit crunch will not have much negative impact on the market.

Chaiyaporn Nompitakcharoen, Head of research,

Bualuang securities

The Nation