• 
• 

Published on March 17, 2008

The Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank keeps a tab on the number of housing completions in Bangkok and its vicinity. Housing completions, by our definition, are houses that are at least 70 percent structurally complete and have been assigned house numbers by district offices.

About 74,000 houses of various types were completed and registered last year, lower than the figure of 78,000 in 2006 but higher than 72,000 registered in the year before.

In contrast, 170,000 houses were completed in each of the two years preceding the 1997 economic crisis. The over-supply continued through the first half of 1997 before alarm bells went off by the middle of the year. Another 150,000 new houses had already been built.

In subsequent years, housing completions dropped to as low as 29,000 units (in 1999) before climbing back to the existing, reasonable levels. We call them "reasonable" because the numbers are close to the average for the past 12 years.

Notably, a high number of high-rise residential construction permits were issued in Bangkok in 2006. If most of these permits turn into actual construction and/or completed units, we have reason to worry.  We are not convinced all permits will translate into completed houses, because a major reason for the rush for permits in 2006 was the eagerness to beat a revised city zoning law.

Despite that anomaly, REIC expects the numbers of new condominiums to grow significantly in the second half of this year and over the next few years.

The author is the director-general of the Real Estate Information Centre.

By Samma Kitsin

The Nation