• 
• 

Published on March 11, 2008

Judging from the history of political violence, while shows of force resulting from street protests - whether peaceful or provocative - are not widespread and can be quickly contained, they could trigger off a showdown.

The transfers of senior officials without reasonable explanations of the motives behind the moves were just the launch pad for a flow of negative views about the Samak government. All of the transfers happened to officials in charge of criminal cases surrounding Thaksin Shinawatra and his family members, as well as his cronies in politics and the bureaucracy.

The chief of police in Chiang Rai's Mae Chan District and a deputy governor in the same province were moved to relatively obscure positions to help lessen the wrath of People Power Party hotshot Yongyuth Tiyapairat, who had to reluctantly walk away from the post of house speaker after being branded a suspect in a poll fraud case in the last election.

A deputy police chief in Buri Ram, the fiefdom of Newin Chidchob, another political bigwig with links to Thaksin, was just moved out of the area. He has been in charge of criminal cases related to an influential clan in the province.

Both these politicians are among Thaksin's top cronies and confidantes, and serve as his power base in the two regions. Now that they are declawed tigers, they have to engage in behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring, clearly defined but aimed at the same objective - the quick reinstatement of Thaksin and his immense political power. Nobody in the government bothered to even offer explicable and educated reasons, other than the standard response that the moves were due to appropriate causes, which simply translated means they were politically motivated or malicious.

Why don't they care? It's due to the same symptoms - political arrogance and overconfidence in the belief that nobody can challenge their grip on power. That's why politicians exercise their power the way they want.

Why no shame at all? The manner in which politicians treated those officials and their counterparts in the Public Health Ministry was not just demeaning, but some of them hardly minded the criticisms or commendations that followed.

The motive and intent for the transfers were pretty obvious and downright obscene. Those tainted politicians and their families want to get off the legal hook and they must do whatever they can just to achieve that objective - by hook or by crook, so to speak.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is disappointing. He just let those politicians go over his head and do whatever they desired, though such blatant acts will bring down the government's rating, which had been high among pro-business groups. His indifference or ignorance is understandable. His attempt to show the public that he is the real boss has not been convincing.

There are more controversial actions that could be taken to save Thaksin from the legal process at all levels. The police and the public prosecutors can be dealt with. It will be a harder task to wheel and deal with some members of the bench.

What has been agreed upon among Thaksin cronies is that they will wait until the Assets Examination Committee completes its term in June. Then they will spend additional months trying to deal with the cases and the evidence through transfers and the appointment of sympathetic officials.

In certain previous court cases, rumours ran like wildfire of financial inducements. It would not be a surprise if we hear of such things again involving astronomical sums of money.

The cronies have even set a time frame for Samak to remain in power until March next year, despite his talk about staying on for four years or even more. His political nominee status would end by that time. What if he refuses to step down? Ah! They will employ legal means - such as the pending criminal accusations against him - to force Samak out.

Don't buy these stories yet. They were deduced from the hush-hush talks during the first night Thaksin stayed at the Peninsula Hotel - the time they set the date for Thaksin's return to London for Thursday. Keep them in mind though.

It's still safe and sound for Samak until March next year, except for some unforeseen circumstances, like widespread protests against the government arising from public anger and the excessive abuse of political power. This time round, Thaksin and his cronies will be more prudent and careful, making a move only if there is an ironclad guarantee of success. Public resentment is brewing. If it is fired up by more blatant acts, it could indeed lead to something very unpleasant, leaving ugly marks and trauma in our history.

Sopon Onkgara

The Nation