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Published on March 6, 2008

The Samak Sundaravej government has put on an impressive display of fancy footwork, but the burning question is: can it throw a serious punch? Can it shore up public sentiment and pull the economy out of the doldrums?

The government's patron saint Thaksin Shinawatra is now back in his homeland. Prime Minister Samak is exuding confidence. The coalition commands a strong majority. Opposition members are acting like bench-warmers. The Senate has yet to prove its political relevancy.

Every key indicator points to a strong government, but will this translate into effective action?

Samak is known for his fiery oratory to sway the public mood. But he should know that his government will stay afloat or sink based on performance and not mere words.

The government has managed to dominate media reports and keep its critics on the sidelines. It has set its own agenda without any serious challenge.

Nonetheless, after unveiling of a tax package to revitalise the economy on Tuesday, it received only a lukewarm response.

In spite of big talk, government leaders have yet to work their magic on boosting business confidence.

This is no time to play the blame game. Elected office-holders can only buy time by blaming every problem, real or imagined, on the coup. At the end of the day, it is their job to fix things instead of making up excuses.

Thaksin and Samak have spoken in unison that they see the coup as the root cause of the ailing economy. But it is on the public record that the interim government managed to boost exports to rank second behind China among Asian economies. This was done without any grandstanding. Economic fundamentals remained sound during the smooth transition of power.

Yet for three consecutive years, consumer sentiment and business confidence have plummeted, coinciding with the fractious political situation. The coup may, or may not, have exacerbated the problems, but the restoration of democratic rule has not proved a cure-all.

In his interview with the London-based Financial Times published on Monday, Thaksin correctly pointed out the pervasive feeling of political uncertainty as a hurdle to overcome.

Like a member of Thaksin's chorus, Samak has repeatedly portrayed his leadership as genuine and capable of steering the country out of turmoil. But doubts linger about who is really in charge of the country.

Thaksin has said time and again that he will stay out of politics. Then he staged a return to his homeland with as much fanfare as a triumphant parade into Rome by Caesar.

Samak lashed out at the local press for doubting his leadership and then played mute to the purge in the bureaucracy - a boon to Thaksin and his allies but a bane to himself and his government's reputation.

If the country is to put political animosity behind, the government needs a major rethink. A fresh start will fail if politicians remain obsessed with the Thaksin legacy as a panacea for all ills. Times change, and so do problems and their remedies.

As long as government leaders appear hell-bent on saving Thaksin's behind, the country will remain in a political quagmire. And Samak will not escape the misery of being only a figurehead.

In 2001, Thaksin won huge support from his grass-roots constituents for such populist policies as the three-year farm-debt moratorium. Seven years later, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee failed to make a ripple after announcing the suspension of repayments for non-performing farm loans.

Businessmen and consumers have taken virtually no notice of the tax package. Consumers don't see how this will improve their purchasing power, while businessmen anticipate no significant growth on the demand side.

Meanwhile, inflation has been projected this year to rise to a record level of 4 per cent due to soaring prices for food and energy.

A major storm is brewing unless government leaders realise in time that their election victory was not an endorsement of their glorified past but a mandate to lead into the future. The reintroduction of a once-popular recipe might not work if shifting trends are left out of the equation.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation