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Published on February 29, 2008

 Most of the Cabinet members would have abandoned the meeting and rushed to Suvarnabhumi Airport to greet Thaksin. Samak would have been left alone with the mosquitoes at Government House.

There is a historical anecdote here. During the late Ayutthaya period, Chao Phaya Kalahom emerged as the most powerful figure in the Atityawong Court. When Chao Phaya Kalahom's mother passed away, all the senior officials or Cabinet members went to attend the funeral. The king was left alone in his palace. the king complained that all the people were loyal to Chao Phaya Kalahom and nobody was paying any attention to him. When Chao Phaya Kalahom overheard the King's remark, he staged a coup. He usurped the throne to become King Prasatthong, and ruled for 25 years until 1655.

Samak is facing a similar dilemma. The ex-prime minister has finally returned home to perhaps reclaim power, albeit in a more discreet way this time.

Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, the finance minister, has already sent out a signal about who really is the boss. He said he would consult Thaksin over how to tackle the country's economic problems and the issue of capital controls.

Samak was stunned by the unexpected return of Thaksin. He had thought he would have time to consolidate his position before Thaksin's return. He was feeling uneasy all day long yesterday, unsure how to move ahead with his premiership.

For a number of reasons, Thaksin has found it expedient to take a big gamble and return home after 17 months in exile.

First, he is afraid the popularity of the Samak government will be short-lived while the economy needs to be handled with a sense of urgency. He said the Thai economy was in bad shape and in need of a doctor to give it at least seven injections. If the economy were mismanaged, it would slip out of control and hurt the government's popularity.

Second, Thaksin is afraid the People Power Party might break apart. And The B-Team, now running the government as substitutes for the 111 executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai party, might get carried away with power. These novices thus need to be held in check.

Third - and this is probably the most important problem of all - Thaksin will need to confront Samak, who has gone his own way to carve out a power-base of his own.

Thaksin needs to put more of his people in different key positions so that when the timing is right, Samak can be removed from the top office. A reorganisation will have to take place soon. You can expect either Surapong or Somchai Wongsawat to succeed Samak as prime minister.

Over his 17 months in exile, Thaksin developed his image so that he became a sort of myth. Few Thais ever saw him in person. They knew he was rich and owned an English Premier League football club. They knew he was moving around continually, appearing and reappearing in Beijing or Hong Kong, then back in London.

So, now that Thaksin has set foot on Thai soil again, he has demystified himself. He is the old Thaksin we all know. He kissed the land to show his bond to the country. Okay, Thaksin is back. And what is next for him?

I guess he won't be in too much of a hurry to reclaim power. He can still pull strings behind the scenes. He knows who his friends and enemies are. His friends are being rewarded with key positions while his foes are being nullified. He does not need to avenge those who removed him from power. If the military leaves him alone, he will leave them alone - at least for the time being. There is a tacit agreement between them, otherwise Thaksin would not have dared to return home.

Thaksin will try to create the impression he is the non-elected leader. He will go to the Golf Association or preside over his Thaicom Foundation. He will visit people and ask about their well-being. If the court gives him the freedom to travel, he will go abroad from time to time.

Over the next five years, all the corruption cases brought against him might not lead anywhere. Then he will make a political comeback.

In the short term, however, political calm will return to Thailand. A political showdown is unlikely to happen soon. But down the line, there will be some bumpy incidents.

 

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation