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Published on February 28, 2008

Their cold, non-sentimental conclusion is that Samak has somehow convinced himself that at this particular juncture, Thaksin needs him more than he does Thaksin - and therefore he should be given free rein to run the government.

(Samak told reporters on Tuesday, when asked whether Thaksin's scheduled return to the country today after a 17-month exile would destabilise his government: "How can he affect my position? He is banned from politics for five years together with 110 other ex-executives of Thai Rak Thai. Whatever happens, he [Thaksin] can't be prime minister anyway…")

It would be in Samak's interest, these hard-core political pundits say, to delay any move, as subtly as possible, to clear Thaksin of all the serious corruption charges, and consolidate his own power base, thereby boosting his own bargaining power.

Pro-Thaksin elements within the PPP may have seen through that plot and are doing all they can, as subtly as possible, of course, to ease Samak out through one of the numerous pending cases, so that one of Thaksin's real right-hand men can take over the premiership, to promptly and systematically pave the way for Thaksin's eventual return to power. 

Thaksin, as the conspiracy theory goes, is of the conviction that while Samak was a great "political asset" during the election campaign, to get PPP a decent number of seats, he has become a political liability in running a populist government that should at least present an amicable face to a highly divided society for the first few months. In other words, according to this line of speculation, Thaksin thinks Samak is a great warrior but a poor peace-maker. 

They claim that if you have really been reading between the lines of all the recent headlines - or reading the PM's lips very carefully, you would probably have been heartened by the "signals" sent out by the PM that he is determined to be his own man. Or to be more specific, the premier is proving capable of resisting Thaksin's commands.

They point to the first major statement by Samak when the new Cabinet was formed. Even before any criticism was hurled at him, Samak confessed that the composition of the Council of Ministers was "somewhat ugly".

When he declared that the line-up wasn't to his own liking, was he suggesting that an "invisible hand" on his side (a term he has used too often to be seen as reserved for his political foes) was in fact dictating who should get what portfolio.

When the PM told reporters he hadn't called Thaksin "because I don't have his number", was it a sign he wasn't taking orders from the leader in exile?

Did you detect the tone of great pride when Samak said that despite the "ugliness" of his Cabinet (did he actually say "my Cabinet"?), he had managed to "shuffle" 12 positions. Notice that he didn't say he could replace or reject any nomination to the line-up. He was boasting about being able to play the shuffling game, not rocking the whole boat.

The conspiracy theorists were jumping up and down with glee when Samak openly said he was "upset" by the list of ministerial secretaries, assistant secretaries and advisers proposed by his Cabinet members, presumably because he thought the public would be seriously disappointed with such sub-standard nominations. Was Samak finally making his last stand against the Big Boss behind the scenes?

The "conspiracy theory" fell flat, however, because one week later, the same list was re-submitted and approved without too much fuss from the "angry" PM. Political posturing won the day again.

But then came another heartening piece of news for those promoting Samak as a "real" PM. He was quoted as saying that he was again "upset" by the speculation in certain newspapers that his People Power Party was to name some of the 111 ex-executive members of TRT (in other words, those close to Thaksin) to directorships at various state enterprises. Was Samak trying to prove that he wasn't just a puppet, doing Thaksin's bidding?

You can't say he hasn't tried desperately hard to convince the public that he is really his own man. But, as the Chinese are fond of saying, loud thunder doesn't necessarily bring a heavy downpour. In fact, any keen observer of the weather (and politics) would inevitably conclude from genuine experience that the louder the thunder, the less chance of heavy rain.

But if you ask me, I am sure all this speculation about an escalating Samak-Thaksin falling out is simply wishful thinking on the part of the conspiracy theorists. But then, you may ask me why Samak pleaded with all the pro-Thaksin groups not to appear in full force at Suvarnbhumi Airport this morning to give the ex-PM a spectacular welcome home. Isn't that a sign of a rift between the two?

Not really. Samak says people may get "mun sai" if the show put up for Thaksin's homecoming is overdone. "Mun sai" is an ambiguous but hugely forceful sentiment. It's neither anger nor opposition. It's somewhere in between. Was the PM reading the public's mind?

You may ask: "Or did he let slip his real, deep personal feelings?"

Put that question to him, and I am sure he will give you a "mun sai" look, too.

(Share your opinion on the ongoing hot issues at my blog at http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ThaiTalk).

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation