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Published on February 18, 2008

They knew when they announced a plan to hold a national referendum in May and an election in 2010 that there would be a mixed chorus of support and dissent. In the end, they gathered that it does not matter what transpires so long as the regime shows there is some movement - at a snail's pace though it might be - towards democracy. This is the strategy the junta leaders have mastered since losing the election in May 1990. They certainly hope that they will be able to muddle along and in the process gain more space and time to work on their own schemes.

While it must have been easy to predict what Western countries as well as China and India would say about the political timeframe, Asean's reaction would have been more difficult to guess. However, Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan has set a cautious tone by saying it was a good beginning.

The US and European Union, which have called for more assistance, dialogue and targeted sanctions towards Burma, expressed dismay at the development, as it did not take into account opposition groups led by Aung San Suu Kyi and other stakeholders. UN efforts were also ignored. At the other end, China and India, as Burma's two major supporters, are certain to view Rangoon's timetable as concrete progress. International pressure to link the summer Olympic Games in Beijing with China's Burmese policy is increasing by the day, but it will not yield any results.

Caught in between the two groups and faced with a Catch-22 situation is Asean. At the moment, there is no uniform approach towards the Burmese crisis. One must not treat Asean's expression of "repulsion" against Burma last September as a reflection of growing impatience among its members. If that were the case, the grouping would have engaged more with the UN and the international community in pushing for change.

At the moment, only the Philippines has maintained a hardline approach seeking the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners as well as improved human rights. Indonesia has been critical of Burma, but has not gone as far as the Philippines. Jakarta is presently focused on drafting the terms of reference that will produce a respectable and independent human-rights body in Asean. This would serve as a prerequisite for the Charter's ratification by the grouping's largest member.

Singapore's attitude towards Burma has been the most intriguing. After orchestrating the strongest statement ever to come from an Asean foreign ministerial meeting since Rangoon joined Asean in 1997, the island nation has apparently thrown in the towel after failing to move the national reconciliation process forward as it had hoped at the last Asean Summit.

Now any change in Asean's attitude towards Burma will be the responsibility of the next Asean chair, Thailand, which will succeed Singapore in July. That could be problematic. With the current government under Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, the Burmese policy adopted during the Thaksin years will be revived. Bangkok is quite determined to back the Burmese road map all the way despite increasing pressure from the international community to do more. Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama's inaugural comments on Burma - that the political situation there was an internal matter - were uncalled for, as they completely overlooked the international dynamics of the situation, including the UN's mediating role.

It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.

At the Asean Summit held in Phnom Penh in 2003, it was former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who successfully convinced other Asean leaders to give newly installed prime minister Khin Nyunt a chance to prove his leadership and his democratic road map. As it turned out, Thaksin's overt favouritism, both in matters of diplomacy and business, with Khin Nyunt played a role in the latter's downfall.

Both the US and the EU, which have been consistently at odds with Thailand over its Burma policy since 2001, have made it clear in private meetings with the new government that if Thailand does not support the ongoing international campaign, it should not make any attempts to undermine it. As the Asean chair and a front-line state to Burma, what Thai leaders say on Burma is closely scrutinised.

It would not be surprising to see a dramatic effort between Thailand and Burma to improve bilateral relations in the weeks and months ahead of the Asean ministerial meeting in Bangkok. There is a strong possibility that Samak might make a quick and discreet trip there in the near future. Several pending loans could be revived and new programmes initiated that would benefit both the junta and former prime minister Thaksin's cronies.

Another important factor is the growing confidence the new members are showing in shaping future Asean policies, especially as regards the non-interference principle. The drafting of the Asean Charter and its outcome demonstrated the tenacity and iron will of new members towards protecting the status quo. That was just the beginning.

The Burmese junta will again enjoy a win-win situation if Thailand and new Asean members vote to support their political reforms and time frame.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation