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Published on February 6, 2008

Yes, politics is war, and war means breaking all the rules, but things here are deteriorating fast from a "national crisis" into a mega-farce that is panning out under the pretexts of ideology, reconciliation and personal honour. A senior colleague of mine said that if you had awoken from a 30-year coma to see Samak Sundaravej as prime minister backed by the "October movement", you would assume you had died and were the victim of a heavenly joke. I say it takes a far shorter time than that for a political circus to develop.

And the circus acts are coming thick and fast. If someone had told me a month ago that coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin would chit-chat with Thaksin Shinawatra on the phone and then publicly declare that they were "brotherly", that General Saprang Kalayanamitr would threaten to sue Manager into bankruptcy, that Samak would express frustration over the "ugly" face of his Cabinet, I would have presumed that person mad.

Reading about these developments only makes us more susceptible to rumours, no matter how crazy they may sound. I used to laugh at the suggestion that former interim prime minister Surayud Chulanont's much-praised determination to keep the election schedule was meant to help quicken Thaksin's return - but that now seems more intriguing than funny. Rumours that Thaksin and Samak could be on a collision course over the latter's new-found aspiration to make a name for himself and shake off the "nominee" label cannot be taken light either.

All of a sudden, Samak has become the most captivating political figure. He may be void of ideology and a mere opportunist, but, against a backdrop of ideological and political complexities, he's charging ahead nonchalantly. A heated debate has erupted on the Prachathai Website after a writer suggested that his rise to power was the end product of an ultra-right-wing campaign to pit Thaksin against Thailand's beloved institution. The article and fiery comments that followed only make us think that both rightist and leftist elements are trying to push him away to the other's side. He has become a bat - neither a bird nor a rat.

But whatever he really is, Samak is more fascinating in political speculation than in ideological debate. He is now said to be aiming for a long stay, thus reportedly enraging Thaksin, who obviously wanted the government's priority to be a no-nonsense legislative and constitutional push to clear his legal cases so he can stage a complete comeback soon.

Lately, Samak has gone very quiet over his initially proclaimed agenda of clearing Thaksin's name. He could have simply been busy, but there are other signs that may be giving Thaksin sleepless nights.

The new prime minister announced Bt500 billion would be spent on mega-projects for transport and water management and has brought in long-time aide Sahas Banditkul to help in the administration, possibly as deputy prime minister. In addition, Samak has become overly anxious about the prospective government's poor image, perhaps too anxious for someone who has allegedly been told to "stay there for six months, get the job done and leave".

Today's biggest political question is: What will Thaksin do if Samak really wants to stay two or three years in office? The former's leverage had been strong before Parliament named the prime minister, but the royal command has come down and if the "nominee" wants it, he can hold the "master" to ransom.

Perhaps, just perhaps, after the Sonthi disgrace and the Saprang-Manager comedy, the next chapter of Thai politics has been written with the title, "The Puppet's Revolt".

Samak as a loose cannon would be a handful for Thaksin. In that scenario, the ousted leader could plot to undermine his rebellious nominee, but the cost would be massive and with unpredictable risks. A parliamentary revolt to pressure Samak would also damage the People Power Party's reputation and unity, and another landslide election victory - in the event Samak succumbed - would be anything but likely.

This may all sound a little far-fetched today, yet we have seen much already. Politics is always romantic as far as the party outside the corridors of power is concerned, but with power comes raw aspiration. The romance of the coup ended shortly and now it's the turn of "democracy" to try to produce something that isn't entirely farcical. The Thaksin-Samak clash theory may be just wishful thinking, something cooked up by their opponents, but the only way to make a conclusion is for all of us to take a three-week deep sleep. And hope for, not the best, but the sensible … when we wake up, that is.

Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation