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Published on January 25, 2008

Political scientist and National Legislative Assembly member Thawee Surarittikul, one of the speakers at the event organised by the NLA secretariat, predicts the new People Power Party-led coalition will likely last no more than two years.

"It will become a target of attack from the public, the opposition party, the media and the people," he said.

 Thawee also predicts that the coming three months will witness an ugly scrambling for the political pie among coalition parties, while issues such as approval of mega-projects or granting amnesty to 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives could lead to another political crisis.

The advice he gives to the next prime minister includes the need to be moral in administrating the country and not to be brash.

Piphob Thongchai, former key leader of the anti-Thaksin Shinawatra People Alliance for Democracy (PAD), warned the new government not to undermine the 2007 charter, saying such a move could trigger another wave of protest. He also said he wanted to remind the new administration that as many as 10 million voters did not support its election and that without the defection of some smaller parties - which had originally vowed to stick with the Democrat Party only to join the People Power Party - the government could have gone to the Democrats.

He took the opportunity to criticise the outgoing junta despite his acceptance of the military over the past 15 months. He said the junta had "exploited the opportunity" during the anti-Thaksin protest led by the PAD and staged a coup. "I'm not saying this just because they are now running out of power," said Piphob. "Actually, I pity them, for they were inept and have become paranoid now that their power is gone."

Others like outgoing speaker of the interim government Chaiya Yimprasert said another coup could not be ruled out if the new regime ran the Kingdom like a business venture.

However, Chaiya admitted that the September 2006 coup was "an absolute waste of time".

"I'm speaking for the record and I'm ready to resign from this second onward," he said, adding that the last hope is now with the people.

Political economist Sangsit Piriyarangsan, who submitted a letter to Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda urging him to do something just a few days before the 2006 coup, alleged that Thaksin was the real person behind the new government and predicted a continued struggle between the bureaucrat-monarchy force versus Thaksin's new-money clique.

 Sangsit claimed he had been told by a well-respected man who has been contacted to become part of the new Cabinet, along with three other people who also contacted the man separately, that Thaksin was still the real political boss."

 "The conflict between the two groups remains, although I wish to see political reconciliation," he said.

 Reconciliation is easier said than done, however, warned the former chairman of the Constitution Drafting Assembly, Noranit Setabutr.

 "Just one word [reconciliation], but how can we achieve it? The political divide is rather deep and the election didn't produce a clear winner. The conflict between the two groups still remains," said Noranit, who mentioned the problems in the far South and the economy as other tasks that need to be addressed by the next government.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation