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Published on January 21, 2008

Prices of oil crops including palm oil and sugar cane have increased as well.

At a lecture on "Energy Alternatives for Thailand amid

the High Oil Price Crisis" at a luncheon talk held by the Engineering Institute of Thailand on January 14, Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand even boldly predicted

that within the next three or four years there would not be wastewater left from factories in Thailand since it would be used to produce biogas that can spin turbines to generate electricity.

Garbage will also have a higher value. Piyasvasti said in the next four years at least 100 megawatts of electricity would be produced from garbage.

"It can go to 200 megawatts if power plant investors can agree on the terms with the owners of the garbage, notably tambon and provincial administrative organisations. The incentives on prices of electricity produced from garbage and funding grants have been sufficiently in place," said Piyasvasti.

Thai authorities are also expected to receive proposals from private investors to build the country's first wind farms during this year, he said.

But alternative and renewable energy alone can not solve Thailand's energy problem, warned Piyasvasti.

"Demand is increasing by 1,400MW annually even though the economy is not performing well. During the next five years, we will need 6,000-7,000MW of additional power, but alternative and renewable energy can at best provide 1,500MW," he said.

To effectively cope with the world energy price crisis, Piyasvasti said, Thailand must implement four major solutions:

-  Efficient use of energy and energy saving

-  Investment in major mass-transit systems

-  Promotion of every type of alternative and renewable energy

-  Introduction of nuclear power plant production.

"I don't see how we can solve the crisis without going for nuclear energy," he said.

Gasohol, biodiesel and natural gas for vehicles (NGV) altogether will substitute 15 per cent of Thailand's oil imports in 2011. But after that year fossil fuels will regain their share due to limitations in plantation areas and other factors, he said.

The energy minister also provided some predictions:

-  After rising to 47 per cent in 2004 due to the government's move to subsidise oil prices, the country's reliance on oil as a percentage to total commercial energy consumption dropped to 41 per cent last year and is forecast to come down to 33 per cent in the next four years. The world's average is 36 per cent.

-  E85 (gasohol produced with 85-per-cent ethanol) is likely to be introduced in the next three or four years but it will take more than a decade for E85 to replace more than half of petrol consumption. Under the current technology, the country won't have enough ethanol to enable 100-per-cent replacement of petrol with E85 at any foreseeable time.

lB5 biodiesel (diesel with 5 per cent palm oil) could be introduced from 2011.

-  "Normal" petrol and diesel will almost be wiped out by the next three to four years, as gasohol, biodiesel and NGV will have taken their place.

Since Thailand is a net food exporter, an increased use of farm products for oil substitution should not be worrisome, and it is inevitable that the country will allow the prices of these oil crops to rise, Piyasvasti said.

Pichaya Changsorn

The Nation