Kuomintang makes a comeback

Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), won handsomely in legislative elections on Saturday, paving the way for a presidential showdown in March. The polls saw the KMT win 81 out of 113 legislative seats, while President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party won only 27 seats. The result was expected because the KMT has been scoring high in polls for the past several months. The defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party was a big blow to Chen's ambitions and his reckless political plans. He wanted to win the referendum, especially on the future status of Taiwan.

Ma Ying-jeou, the leader of the KMT, is an impressive figure with moderate views. He has made it clear that the KMT's political platform is to seek rapprochement with China. He has often been quoted as saying that too much tension across the Taiwan Straits has developed during eight years under Chen and that this is bad for political stability and economic prosperity. Without good economic growth, stability and prosperity in the region would slip away.

Ma knows that the Taiwanese people are concerned about their sluggish economic growth. His views have also won support from the United States and Japan, key allies of the island. On the contrary, Chen's talk-tough policy, which has garnered some support locally, quite often has put friends and allies in an awkward position. The United States has been the most vocal in criticising the Taiwanese government for its planned referendum on its membership in the UN, from which it was kicked out 28 years ago. Washington does not want to upset its good ties with Beijing at the moment. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has already warned Taiwan not to provoke China. China's leaders see the referendum as a sinister ploy to set the stage for the island's independence from China.

Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and a declaration of independence by Taiwan could result in a war that might engulf the whole northeast Asian region.

Japan is also caught in a dilemma. With the dramatic improvement of Japan-China relations, it would be difficult for Tokyo to pursue its past policy of tolerating the island's political assertiveness. When Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda visited China at the end of last year, he told Chinese leaders that Japan would not support any effort by Taiwan that would change the status quo over the straits. In other words, Japan supports the one-China policy.

The KMT is staging a major comeback with its victory at the polls. It will need to improve its image as a party, which has been burdened by historical baggage and corruption. Many scandals took place under KMT administrations in the past, but the current government has not improved upon issues of governance either. In fact, it has been involved in several high-profile corruption cases involving Chen's family. As such, Taiwanese voters are looking ahead. But whether they will vote for KMT leadership depends on several factors. One of them is China's attitude.

Many voters will certainly reject the candidate who they perceive has China's tacit or overt support. Deep down, they do not want a leader who kow-tows to Beijing. Indeed, they want a leader who can make peace with China while at the same time maintaining Taiwan's integrity and economic prosperity. These twin objectives are pretty tough to achieve these days. China is no longer a third-world country. It now has a formidable international presence. In August, it will host the Olympic Games, which will further propel its influence on the global stage.

It will be interesting to watch who will prevail and become president. Taiwanese voters are pragmatic and often oriented towards self-interest. If they see a candidate who can appease China and improve cross-straits trade while maintaining Taiwan's prestige as a political unit, that candidate will surely win. For China, it is in its interest to remain impartial and keep quiet on the political front. Any undue comments would generate a quick reaction among Taiwanese voters and might undermine the current trend toward rapprochement.

The Nation