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Published on January 11, 2008

While the PPP looks set to form a coalition government, the road ahead is full of political landmines that could see the cancellation of its election victory or even its dissolution in the worst-case scenario.

The PPP will not have to wait long as the Supreme Court will today rule on the complaint filed by the New Aspiration Party that the Election Commission (EC) had no authority to organise the advance and absentee balloting on December 15 and 16.

That case will be followed by another for which the high court will, on Tuesday, hold its first hearing on four legal issues concerning the national poll that were raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

They are: whether the PPP was qualified for the election as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party; whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej was qualified to run in the race as the proxy of Thaksin; whether the advance voting was valid; and, whether the distribution - allegedly by PPP candidates in northeastern provinces - of video CDs with Thaksin asking his supporters to vote for the PPP, was illegal.

Another case pending legal process is the lawsuit filed by the EC against the PPP.

It follows the high court's ruling in early December that the PPP was involved in forging the signature of Sithichai Kowsurat as a party member by putting his name on the roster of election candidates.

Based on membership documents supplied by the PPP, the EC disqualified Sithichai as a candidate of the Puea Pandin Party in November for holding double party membership. His candidacy was restored because of the court's verdict.

The EC's reaction to the Sithichai case is not a good sign for the PPP. EC member Sodsri Satayathum has warned that PPP leader Samak would be held accountable and might face criminal charges if the EC finds that he or his party had fabricated membership records.

If the PPP intentionally tampered with its records to influence the election process, this could lead to a judicial review by the Constitution Court, she said, noting the offence is punishable by party dissolution.

The PPP is also staring at possible dissolution on another front.

The EC is about to rule on an election fraud case involving PPP deputy leader Yongyuth Tiyapairat as a party-list candidate for Zone 1, covering northern provinces like Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai.

The crux of the charges concerns his alleged involvement in offering monetary rewards to village headmen and kamnan in his home city of Chiang Rai to sway votes for him and his party.

The PPP could feel the heat in this case because, under the new election rules, a political party is accountable for any campaign offence involving its executive members.

EC chairman Apichart Sukhagganond said recently a ruling against Yongyuth could trigger a series of events that could end with the PPP being disbanded.

The EC chairman claimed, should Yongyuth be found to have committed wrongdoing in his capacity as deputy party leader, the Constitution Court could consider winding the PPP down.

If those cases are already causing headaches for the PPP, there are more.

The Supreme Court will kick off the trial against Thaksin's wife Pojaman on January 23 over her purchase of land in 2003, when Thaksin was prime minister. The Assets Examination Committee has accused them of abuse of power to boost their wealth.

The PPP-led coalition could face a crisis of legitimacy if they are found guilty.

The hearing will take place shortly after the House convenes the first session, scheduled before January 22.

The House session to elect the prime minister, expected to be held by early next month, will be the first parliamentary test for the PPP-led alliance that is about to form the government.

Samak apparently is not the favoured choice of some key members of the PPP and its allies, including Chat Thai, Puea Pandin, Pracharaj, Matchima Thipataya and Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

As Samak is seen as a fierce opponent of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda - allegedly the man behind the September 2006 coup toppling Thaksin - they are concerned that an attempt to reconcile all sides involved in national conflicts will fail if he becomes the prime minister.

Chat Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa is reportedly an alternative to Samak, as he has a good relationship with Prem and would be palatable to both pro- and anti-Thaksin camps.

If the PPP still insists on nominating Samak as the new premier, its coalition government could have a short life, as it would face strong resistance from the anti-Thaksin groups.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

 The Nation