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Published on January 9, 2008

 But since everywhere I go, people always assume that working at a newspaper automatically enables me to know conspiracies and counter-conspiracies at all levels, it's an honour to face scorn and contempt again for my faithful fans.

Before we get to the point, please keep in mind that the present political situation remains quite fluid. However, I can guarantee that the answers to FAQs or make-your-pick-cause-I'm-not-sure-either analyses are based on the best information we have to date:

Can the Election Commission wrap up the election process in 30 days?

It surely can. The more difficult question is, "Will it?" The deadline is about two weeks away and, in the current context, that's plenty of time. If you ask our Political Desk, the staff trust the EC to beat it. This optimistic scenario has by-elections on January 13, 17 and 20 to more or less fill up the void created by red and yellow cards, while the commission will start issuing new cards after Parliament is convened on January 22.

Some senior editors with really good sources, though, believe we all are in for another long period of suspense. First of all, the "deadline" is apparently not obligatory. Second, and more importantly, the present attempts to clamp down on the People Power Party for its alleged connections to Thaksin Shinawatra do not look like a mere smokescreen.

Will the PPP be dissolved?

The scenario is unimaginable at the moment, and even some of the staunchest anti-Thaksin critics would be enraged if it did happen. But a lot of inconceivable things have occurred over the past two years. Who would have thought the courts would nullify a general election? Even more unthinkable was last year's dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai Party.

Two big time-bombs have been planted. The Election Commission has made an issue out of the distribution of Thaksin CDs, which may be used to establish that the 111 banned Thai Rak Thai executives have violated the political ban through PPP activities. Another EC case involves deputy PPP leader Yongyuth Tiyapairat, who was allegedly caught on camera trying to bribe village heads and kamnans to help his party. Then a case was filed with the Supreme Court pointing out that both PPP leader Samak Sundaravej and Thaksin confirmed publicly that the PPP was the latter's nominee.

The charges and evidence are apparently damning. But dissolving a party that has won an election will irreparably smear Thailand. In the eyes of the international community, there will be absolutely no justification for such a move. Locally, the bitter divide, miraculously bloodless so far, could turn into something far worse.

Will the PPP be disbanded?

I'm not quite sure. Should it be? Never ever.

What's the latest on the formation of the new government?

The PPP has won over every party except the Democrats. How? Publicly, the allies will say the decisions are based on the country's interests. Behind the scenes, though, rumours have been raging about effective and staggering use of the most reliable persuasive tool. Everyone has his price, remember.

Some big names may continue to blast reporters for jumping the gun in the next few days. But their "No" means anything but "No". Come to think of it, none of them has even actually said "No" since December 23.

Is Samak the sure bet as prime minister?

Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa is being seen as a somewhat surging dark horse. Pojaman Shinawatra's return to Thailand yesterday was even seen by some as part of a conspiracy to edge Samak out of the way. This Banharn-as-prime-minister scenario is based on the belief that Samak Sundaravej is too much of a divisive loose cannon.

But if Banharn is a compromise, Samak is indispensable when corruption cases against Thaksin and Pojaman are concerned. It is true that whoever the new prime minister is, he will face a major uproar if he tries to interfere with the judicial process; but of the two candidates, Samak is the one with the guts to do it.

What about Abhisit Vejjajiva?

As much as everyone is trying to help him - left, right and centre - his numerical disadvantage is too overwhelming. A coalition government with fewer than 10 MPs more than the opposition in this kind of political situation needs more than miracles to form, let alone survive.

Will Thaksin return home during Songkran, as he said he planned to?

If you put a gun to my head and say stop beating around the bush and be definite for once: No.

Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation