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Published on Dec 25, 2007

The deposed prime minister picked the uncompromising Samak Sundaravej as his stand-in to lead the PPP in the ballot and sent a clear message he was wag-ing war on the military and elitists who staged the coup last year.

"The coup is dead," Samak exclaimed after the poll result on Sunday night, suggesting he had won a victory over the military, rather than the rival Democrats, who he regards as sons of the coup.

Military top brass, including former supreme commander Boonsang Nieumpradit and former junta chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin, said they had no fear of revenge from the PPP, a reincarnation of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party, as they did nothing wrong - only good things for the country.

They had reasons to think that way and believed retaliation was unlikely, said Ukrist Pathmanand, a senior researcher at Chulalongkorn University's Asian Studies Institute.

The military had played its role in politics over the past year since the coup, he said.

Unlike the military in the 1960-70s or during Prem Tinsulanonda's era in the 1980s, the military these days can no longer use their weapons to dictate politics, he said. The situation over the past year and the performance of the military-backed government indicated the Army was not in a position - or even had the competence - to directly run the country.

Modern Thailand, politically, economically and socially, was far too complex for them, he said.

The military spent the past 15 months positioning itself politically, beginning with a new definition of what was a threat to the Kingdom; General Sonthi suggested after the bombs last New Year's Eve was a "new security threat."

Unlike the United Nations' definition, the new security threat for Sonthi was not natural disasters, Ukrist said. The "new security threat" meant people who use ideo-logy against the three state foundations - nation, religion and monarchy - and have the capability to mobilise the masses politically, he said.

"Obviously, a military document suggests the new security threat is former communist insurgents who have maintained their core ideology to change the state's foundations," Ukrist said.

It sounds a very old fashioned security assessment but all senior military officials have subscribed to the idea and began to revamp their operational structure by enhancing the role of the Internal Security Operation Command (Isoc), which was legalised by the newly issued Internal Security Act.

The lack of definition of security in terms of the Act allowed the military plenty of room to play politics and to even influence a civilian elected prime minister for the benefit of what they call 'security', Ukrist said.

In real terms, the military had already benefited from the coup with increased defence budgets for weapons procurement including expensive jet fighters they might not have achieved during an elected civilian government.

From now on, relations between the pro-Thaksin government and the military would not be the same, as when Thaksin was in the power.

Both camps knew the other's strengths better. And Thaksin and his crew realised the military could not be by-passed. A coup could happen whenever soldiers were not comfortable with the people in politics.

On the other hand, the military also knew they could not manipulate politics as they wished. Judging by Sunday's election outcome, the top brass have learnt that Thaksin's party is firmly favoured in certain areas and they usually get the peoples' mandate - which the military never has - to run the country.

However, new Army chief Anupong Paochinda managed to position himself a proper distance from politicians by saying he would not stage a coup against an elected government.

Samak rushed to applaud this stance by saying the Army chief had done well to step back from politics. "We are both doing our own jobs," Samak said.

Sonthi picked Anupong as his successor because the latter is a moderate soldier, compared to rival candidate Saprang Kalayanamitr, who played an active role in the coup against Thaksin. He was kicked upstairs to the "inactive" post of deputy permanent secretary at Defence, to pave way for Anupong, who was a classmate of Thaksin at Pre-Cadet School.

"Saprang is uncompromising and a lose cannon who could get the Army into political trouble if he held the Army chief's position," a military official said.

The junta has already created a shield for the military against possible revenge by Thaksin, as soldiers who were key players during the coup are either retired or away from key posts.

Coup leader Sonthi's role as deputy PM will expire with the military-installed government, while Saprang has no power and others are keeping a low profile. That makes retaliation unnecessary and means the military will remain "safe".

Supalak G Khundee

The Nation