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Published on January 2, 2008

Thai scientists and economists have responded by warning that the country has to get serious about protecting the capital.

In the first-ever evaluation of its kind, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ranked 136 coastal cities with populations greater than one million by the impacts they would experience from a major flood.

Bangkok ranked seventh.

Right now, approximately 900,000 people in the capital are at risk from a one in 100-year flood event. But more than five million would be at risk by 2070, the report said.

Economic losses to infrastructure from such floods are estimated to be Bt1.3 trillion presently, but would soar to Bt36.7 trillion by 2070.

"This is just the latest warning sign that our policy makers must take climate change more seriously and start planning ahead," said economist Salinee Achavanantakul, who lectures at Thammasat University.

"The year 2070 may seem like a long time, but it's not in terms of planning to prevent economic catastrophe. For instance, to limit future losses, there must be policies to prevent property development in risk areas today."

Established on the Chao Phya River delta, Bangkok's risk factors are greater than most other coastal cities due to land subsidence. Every year the city sinks about 2-3 cm.

When this is combined with the expected rise in

sea levels and more ex-

treme weather events due to global warming, the percentage of Bangkok affected by flooding would grow tremendously without well-crafted flood management plans, said Thanawat Jarupongsakul, head of the Disasters and Land Information Studies Centre, at Chulalongkorn University.

"Bangkok could become like New Orleans when it was hit by hurricane Katrina because of their geographical similarities," Thanawat said.

"At least three million people in Bangkok would be immediately affected should a typhoon strike today.

"Unlike many other coastal cities, we don't have any disaster preparation plans to deal with such an extreme event. Two years ago when a typhoon was expected to hit the Mekong Delta, Vietnam managed to quickly move 200,000-300,000 people away from the risk zones. [But] Bangkok isn't up to anything like that."

During the last big flood in 1995, known as the "White House" flood, nearly 40 per cent of the metropolitan area was inundated for nearly a month, he said.

"And we're now observing an increase in storm frequency, from once every four or five years to once every other year over the past decade," Thanawat noted.

Beyond the human toll Bangkok would suffer huge economic losses, economist Salinee warned.

Where would the money come to aid those affected, much less to replace the loss of infrastructure? Using OECD estimates, a major flood now would cost the country Bt1.3 trillion, equivalent to nearly 20 per cent of the country's entire Gross Domestic Product.

If protective measures are not taken now, these numbers could worsen to the point where infrastructure losses may be several times greater than Thailand's GDP.

Thanawat said both the numbers of people expected to be affected and damage estimates may be conservative. The OECD used the official population estimate for Bangkok of 6.5 million in 2005 - whereas the actual number is probably about 11 million.

Salinee agreed with the OECD's recommendations that was long overdue for Bangkok to get serious about protecting itself against future storms.

The report notes that while other coastal cities, such as Amsterdam, Tokyo and London also face severe threats, they rank much lower on the OECD scale of impact as they have historically invested heavily in protective infrastructure and land-use policies.

The policy implications are quite clear. The report says: "… the benefits of climate change policies for both global mitigation and local adaptation at the city-scale are potentially great. As reported in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, global mitigation can slow and limit the exacerbating effects of climate change on coastal flood risk, at a minimum buying precious time for cities to put adaptation measures in place. As cities are also responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions they are also key actors in the design and implementation of mitigation strategies."

The increasing threats to Bangkok's population and economy due to the impacts of global warming should compel Thailand to play a much more active role in bringing greenhouse gas emissions down, Salinee said.

"Reports like this just reinforce how Thailand must get serious about both protecting itself, and working to bring our carbon emissions down.

"We have a major stake in this issue, but so far we have not seen the need to act.

"Our business sector still focuses on how to turn global warming into new marketing opportunities.  We have not yet acted as if we really care."

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

 The Nation