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Published on December 30, 2007

There is nothing complicated about their horse-trading despite their claims of dignity and honour. The political long fangs are primarily concerned about striking a deal to form a coalition - never mind the previous campaign promises they made to voters that have now been conveniently forgotten.

Why should the gullible and naive grass-roots bunch be given any more attention after their votes have been bought? This confirms the longstanding tradition of big-money politics and cheap votes - the unmistakable signs of the vicious circle. There will be more clowning and arguments to justify their partnerships. It was no surprise that the People Power Party (PPP) won the election, even though it was several votes short of a simple majority. Our political swashbucklers want to make sure that their grip on power lasts long enough in a stable coalition so that they can profit from the venture.

That is possible now that the Democrat Party, with 165 votes, mainly from the South, is left out in the cold to perform their typical role as the opposition. The party does not have the huge war chest of the PPP to use in election campaigns or to woo coalition partners.

PPP officials no longer blush when they talk about the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, who spent several days in Hong Kong to watch the election and then celebrate the victory with core PPP leaders. From now on it is a matter of formality and procedure before the PPP and its partners can form a coalition and share the spoils.

Nothing can stand in the way of PPP now that it strives to become the ruling power and pave the way for the return of Thaksin, who has said time and again that he wants to fight his legal battles in court.

Thaksin said he would return to Bangkok sometime between February and April. There are doubts still that he would have the nerve to do so given the reports of those with political vendettas against him. His opponents are not expected to take anything from Thaksin and his cronies sitting down.

Will there be a last-minute hitch to prevent the PPP from taking over the government? That's highly unlikely as the situation stands. The smaller parties are more than willing to be in a PPP-led coalition despite their feigned reservations, which are due to a fear of public criticism.

As of yesterday, it was clear that the PPP will have the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties as key partners, supported by three smaller parties, which have already yielded to the temptation of being in government. If they don't have serious conflicts, they can continue sharing benefits at the expense of the people.

The stock market's reaction to a PPP-led government was positive. Nobody could verify whether trading was mainly influenced by stockbrokers and investors who were chums of Thaksin.

Let's take it for granted that PPP will successfully form a coalition. Who then will become prime minister? The thought of having PPP leader Samak Sundaravej as the chief executive officer has sent chills up the spines of many. His combative and outspoken style has been appalling. Once installed at the top, nobody can say for sure if anyone will have enough power to control him.

That's not Thaksin's problem. For him, the task of Samak serving as a nominee and bulldozing his way through critics and obstacles is finished. The next step will be for someone who can be trusted, and who is certainly not a loose cannon, to proceed with taking over government and using it for the maximum benefit of the true benefactor.

The real nominee, or protégé, must accept the role of government leader. A hothead with unpredictable moods like Samak does not fit the bill. After all, affairs of state must be managed with civility and good sense, not to mention strong credibility and character. What's more? Samak is bogged down in a criminal case and a two-year jail sentence while his appeal is being considered. More potential cases are expected.

The victory of the PPP was a big disappointment for the Council for National Security, the members of which may be at Thaksin's mercy for staging the coup and sending him into exile. But the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont is to blame for an incredibly sloppy performance over the past year, in which it has done almost nothing of substance, but has made Thaksin look better as the days pass.

That was no surprise. What the administration had was very accommodating for the return of Thaksin and his cronies. The fugitive politician in exile should feel gratitude towards Surayud, who looks every bit like Thaksin's silent partner.

It's a foregone conclusion that the PPP will take the government. Miracles are hard to come by these days. Nobody knows whether Surayud will have to live with a guilty conscience or remain indifferent as he has been doing all along, leaving the country in dire straits with a pathetic economic growth rate and people in anger and frustration.

As Surayud is counting down his days left in office, the people are bracing for what is to come. It does not take a crystal ball to predict that political uncertainty will remain. The only possible barrier preventing the PPP from taking power soon would be if the Election Commission were able to pin down cheaters during the election and invalidate their victories, which would require more time for further elections.

The grass-roots voters have voted in the PPP and the urban people will have to accept the mandate, but only for a while. As soon as corruption scandals erupt among the swashbucklers, there will be enough justification for history to repeat itself - provincial folks set up a government, city people eject it. This will not be as easy as before without bloodletting on the streets.

Who will be held accountable for the mess then? 

Sopon Onkgara