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Published on December 25, 2007

Thamrongsak Petchlert-anan, a political historian at Rangsit University, said he believed an unstable coalition government would lead to another coup or an eventual dissolution of parliament.

"The political crisis isn't over and the PPP's policy on Thaksin and his family, as well as the 111 former executives of Thai Rak Thai [who have been banned from politics], will become an issue for a new coup," Thamrongsak said.

He saw no sign of economic and social policies being implemented in the near future amid political haggling.

Somchai Preechasinlapakun, dean of the law at Chiang Mai University, said the coalition government would face three common problems that would consume much of its time, and it would not be free to implement policies as promised.

The first problem would be the instability of the government and an opposition that would not be much different.

Secondly, the government would face difficulties implementing policies under a coalition because of the need to bargain all the time. Both the PPP and the Democrats are on shaky social ground because a PPP-led government would be opposed by the middle class and the military, while a Democrat-led government would have no support from the majority of voters, he said.

Thirdly, the regime would face bure-aucratic policy empowered by the 2007 Constitution as well as in many laws.

He said all negotiations about forming the coalition government should be done in an open manner. "They shouldn't do it behind closed doors. Matters will get worse when the parties are not even identifiable," Somchai said.

Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, of Chulalong-korn University, said he believed the PPP could continue its populist policies if the party was able to form a government.

And the Democrats could also carry out their 99-day economic plan, as promised, if they lead a coalition.

"But People Power will lead the country into further political crisis if it still stands firm on its policy to protect Thaksin." But he didn't think PPP would be able to take office without compromises with other parties. And if the Democrats formed a coalition, it would lead to crisis as the PPP would claim a party with fewer votes "won".

Subhatra Bhumiprabhas

 The Nation