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Published on December 25, 2007

In the aftermath of the September coup last year that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, the international community gave Thailand a lengthy lecture on democracy.

But, after 15 months of military rule, Thailand is back on track towards democratic rule - or so it seems.

This past weekend saw more than 70 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, and the United States and Japan, among others, welcomed the results.

International news reports portrayed the election as a referendum on Thaksin. The outcome was billed as democratic vindication for the billionaire, who had watched from abroad the dismantling of his Thai Rak Thai Party and the banning of 111 of its leading members from the electoral process for five years.

"Thailand military rule rejected by voters", read the Daily Telegraph of the United Kingdom. The newspaper said the result was a "damning verdict" on the junta.

Another British paper, The Guardian, suggested "Election triumph could herald Thaksin return", while The Economist wondered if Thailand was on the verge of becoming the Pakistan of Southeast Asia.

Perhaps the headline that most appropriately depicted Thailand's predicament was Asia Times Online - "Thailand democratic but shaky after vote".

But "shaky" may be an understatement, given that Thailand has been in political turmoil for two years, considering the year-long street protests that preceded the 2006 coup.

The coming week will see a period of horse-trading. People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej, in his first post-election press conference just hours after voting was complete, made it clear he intended to become the next prime minister - and it would not be a party leader who came in a distant third, Banharn Silapa-archa.

He portrayed the result as a triumph of democracy over the illegitimate military junta.

"The coup is dead," announced Samak at a news conference. "Now the people have had their say. The numbers that came out are an answer to those people," he said, referring to the military.

In keeping with tradition, horse-trading week will involve sleepless nights. Asia Times Online reminded us that "invisible forces - including the military and the Privy Council's hidden hands" - still have time to manoeuvre to keep People Power from forming a government.

Former Thai Rak Thai government spokesman Jakrapob Penkair, seen by many as a young man in a hurry, was first out of the blocks. He accused Chart Thai and Puea Pandin leaders of attending a secret meeting on Sunday with Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, the man accused by Thai Rak Thai of being behind the coup.

The election outcome was not what the military hoped for. But, then again, it has only itself to blame.

It ordered the tanks on to the streets but failed to live up to its promise of destroying Thaksin and his self-serving structure built during his years in politics.

For whatever reason, the coup leaders wanted to be seen as benevolent dictators. But, in a democratic society, there is no such thing.

In 1997, Thailand came up with a constitution that was supposed to enhance checks and balances, and strengthen political parties; "the people" were tired of the long-standing patronage politicians who used their factions to ensure Cabinet seats. It hoped to strengthen the executive and parties at the expense of these factions.

The Senate was to be impartial, with a rule that prohibited members from belonging to a party.

But, as the saying goes - be careful what you wish for because you might just get it. In Thailand's case, it got what it asked for - a powerful administration led by the country's richest man who used his money to build a massive party.

The current constitution, pushed through by the military government, was supposed to swing the pendulum back; just far enough to prevent the rise of another Thai Rak Thai. It may have done so, as the outcome of the polls suggests, but it failed to bridge the gap between pro- and anti- Thaksin camps. Thailand is just as divided as ever, and its future is just as shaky.

What is wracking the nerves of the anti-junta camp, as well as the military, is the likelihood that People Power leader Samak will become Thailand's new prime minister.

It will be even more interesting, indeed, if Samak becomes delusional and thinks he is here to stay - and not just as a bench-warmer for Thaksin.

Don Pathan

 The Nation