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Published on December 23, 2007

The People Power Party is poised to win close to - if not more than - 200 seats in the House of Representatives, thereby having first right to form a coalition government, unless it achieves a landslide victory and a simple majority.

But again, the People Power Party would need something close to a miracle to overcome the formidable obstacles that stand in the way of Thaksin's triumphant return.

Whether the People Power Party has a big victory or not depends on the ballots cast by the so-called "silent power" - urban and educated voters who traditionally do not care about exercising their voting rights. This time round, their turnout could make a difference.

With previous polls suggesting the People Power Party will win, those who find the thought of years living dangerously with Thaksin's nominees in power abhorrent might be inspired to vote for the best among the unacceptable, just to show that they won't allow bought votes to dictate their future.

It also depends on last night: the night before the election is perceived to be a crucial time for political canvassers and their agents to roam around villages and hand out cash to win the hearts and souls of potential voters. The ones with the largest sums have better chances.

If poll watchers and government officials monitoring illegal practices were doing their supervisory duties last night, there could be a sustained difference in election results, despite reports of widespread violations and vote-buying sprees.

Those complaining about blatant violations in electoral law made by the People Power Party perceive the Election Commission (EC) as lacking energy, or indifferent. Some people are still optimistic that the EC has been gathering evidence to deal with such cases after the polls.

People Power Party candidates and their canvassers have boldly challenged the EC in cases involving the falsification of the signature of a fellow candidate, the declaration that they serve as nominees of Thaksin, and the distribution of a CD of Thaksin making pleas for voters to support People Power Party.

For months, the People Power Party has been campaigning hard to woo voters and stir up sympathy for Thaksin, claiming that the party's win will result in Thaksin's return and an end to their suffering.

In fact, Thaksin can always come back home anytime he desires. There is no law barring his homecoming. But the People Power Party and Thaksin's cronies have made this a key point because it is a big tear-jerker for the gullible and cash-influenced voters.

Thaksin has maintained his own double standard when it comes to his struggle, crying that he wants to fight his legal battles only after the general election. He must be confident that his nominee party will win; though it is a big question mark whether the win will mean ruling power.

Among his claims are that he does not have faith and confidence in the existing judicial process, or court proceedings, suggesting quite clearly that they are under the influence of the Council for National Security or other elements. In his view, he stands to face hostile court of law.

But when he wants to sue somebody, throwing multimillion-baht harassment suits at critics and political enemies, he has assigned expensive lawyers to seek the court's help in criminal and civil cases to deal with those opponents, fully believing that the legal process can bring him justice.

He is well aware that winning court battles on corruption charges will not be easy without his nominees in government and exercising influence over the judicial process, either by persuasion or outright bribery. The judiciary remains the only credible institution with the public's confidence and trust. With a negative judgement already rendered against his allies, Thaksin is convinced that seeking a way out without a full trial and public attention will not be easy.

As has been said time and again, the fugitive Thaksin does not want justice in all cases when he is the defendant. He just wants to shake loose from all legal liabilities, charges, indictments and, of course, possible conviction and jail terms.

All along, Thaksin has been insisting that he has quit politics for good. His pattern of conduct has suggested the opposite. What's more, he has never been good as a man of his word.

His only son has been actively campaigning together with key People Power Party candidates, particularly in the North and Northeast, openly admitting that he was doing the wooing on behalf of his fugitive father.

Ultimately, it will be the decision of all Thai voters today. It's not just about casting ballots for the ones they like. They have to decide the future of the country as well. The ballots they cast today will also reflect their consciences and their sense of right and wrong, with or without the awareness that this is just the beginning of more political troubles to come.

For cynics, the brief time people spend in ballot booths results in a blank cheque for politicians, giving them full right to do what they like and dictate the destiny of the

country.

Sopon Onkgara