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Published on December 20, 2007

Prayad Hongtongkum, an independent political scientist, said if the People Power Party (PPP) had a clear mission to save former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from military-backed penalties and grant amnesty to the 111 executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, those who disliked a PPP-led government might call street protests again.

"The PPP government would be busy with protecting their personal interests, instead of the public interest," he said.

The Democrat Party, which polls say would be defeated by the PPP, might attract support from other parties to form a coalition government, but that would raise questions from opponents about its legitimacy, he said.

"If either PPP's Samak Sundaravej or the Democrats' Abhisit Vejjajiva was the next prime minister, the political crisis would not end," he said.

Kanin Bunsuwan, a 1997 charter drafter, preferred Samak to Abhisit as the Demo-crat-led government would be unstable.

Abhisit would get the chance to lead the government only if he could win the backing of at least four or five parties, which would leave him with weakened bargaining power.

"It would be the least powerful, if not powerless, government that couldn't do anything to solve the country's problems. I think it would be a very short-lived government, not more than six months," he said.

The Democrat Party would be in a worse situation if it became the government and could not fix the country's problems, he said.

Samak was more suitable to become the next prime minister, he said.

"Samak has more leadership than Abhisit, who is like grass growing under a big tree. If Samak was in charge, Thailand's image in the international view will get better," he said.

"On the other hand, if the Democrats don't win the election but Abhisit happens to become prime minister, the county's image in the international community could be worse.

"We have to respect the people's decision. If the PPP lands a victory over the Democrats, it should be allowed to form the government. It will be better for our country than using any power to block it."

Trakul Meechai, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, said that "whoever wins the election should get the right to form the government. That could be good for Thai politics."

Prapas Pintobtaeng, another Chulalongkorn political scientist who is keen on civil society, said neither Samak nor Abhisit could help strengthen civil society.

"Abhisit might talk a bit about the 'people's agenda' but I don't really see how he could deliver," he said.

But that was better than having Samak, who would definitely create confrontation in the country, he said.

On the economic front, Sompop Manarangsan, a Chulalongkorn economist, hopes to see politicians who are well-versed in the economy get elected because the biggest concern among both top businessmen and people at the grassroots level is whether the economy will recover soon.

The economy looks likely to slow down next year, so the new leader should be capable of managing the coalition government. He should also have the image of an honest person, as the public's anger over corruption was the spark behind the coup, he said.

It is not necessary for the new government to be formed by the party with the most MPs, as the image of the new premier would be crucial, he said.

Sakol Varanyuwatana, an economics lecturer at Thammasat University, also wants a politician who understands the economy's problems and has the courage to implement difficult policies with long-range results to promote the country's competitiveness, such as the initiation of a pollution tax.

Somroutai Sapsomboon,

 Wichit Chaitrong

 The Nation