• 
• 

Published on December 19, 2007

At this point, however, each of the parties can see roughly where they stand in the post-election political scene having predicted where their winning seats will come from.

The People Power Party (PPP) under Samak Sundaravej is optimistic about its future despite an alleged attempt to block it from leading the next government.

The party expects to get at least 90 of the 135 seats in the Northeast, the PPP's Northeast chairman Prasong Buranapong said.

Although more than 60 per cent of local electorates reportedly have not decided which party they will vote for, he believed most of them will pick PPP candidates.

"Isaan people didn't like the coup. They know there's a plot to block PPP from assuming power," Prasong said.

The Puea Pandin Party, he believed, had been a challenging contender of the PPP until local people learnt that a top military officer was backing it, so they turned to PPP, he said.

A campaign to bring home the hero of the rural people, deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra, had proved that Thaksin had become an indispensable message for the PPP's candidates in the region.

"The people have sympathy for Thaksin and our party," Prasong said.

Meanwhile, a key PPP member who refused to be named, said the PPP under the shadow of Thaksin would not win by a landslide in Bangkok as Thaksin's disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party did in recent polls. However, he believed PPP would win at least 16 of the 36 seats in the capital.

In the Democrat Party's stronghold of the South, the PPP hoped its Wadah faction would win some seats in the three southernmost provinces, the key members said.

The Democrats, meanwhile, hoped to win 170 seats after their disappointing result in 2005 in which they won 96 of the 500 seats, said a key party member who wanted to remain anonymous.

Bangkok would still be a significant indicator of results for the Democrats, the source said, adding party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva would be happy if the party won more than 30 of the 36 seats in the capital. However, the source said the party's target was 26 seats.

It was hard to evaluate popularity in the capital as Bangkok voters were not aligned to any party, the source said, adding most voters would make their minds up just before the election.

While the Democrats expected to win all seats in the South - in the worst case it might lose only one seat - the party source said its popularity in the Northeast was low.

"Our popularity in the Northeast is not so good, just as it used to be. But it's getting better. We expect to get six or seven seats this time," the source said. The Democrats won two seats in the region in the 2005 election.

Next in line to the two rivals is the Chart Thai Party, which is expected to win about 40 seats.

"Actually, the election result will be much different from those figures," deputy party leader Weerasak Khowsurat said.

He expected the popularity of each contending party would change in the three days ahead of the election as all parties make last-ditch efforts to woo voters.

Even when the unofficial results came out, the number of winning candidates could change.

"The Election Commission [EC] may issue red or yellow cards to the winners," Weerasak said.

When a candidate is yellow-carded, his or her victory is nullified but he or she can still run in a by-election if cleared of misconduct.

In case of a red card, the candidate's win is nullified but he or she cannot run in the by-election.

Weerasak said there were many legal aspects that could affect the parties and their MPs- elect.

He said all parties should also take into account a condition that allowed winning candidates to vote for a person whom they believe should be the prime minister - without having to respect their party's stance.

Pisut Dechakraisaya, the Puea Pandin Party's election coordination director, said the party at first expected to win at least 50 seats.

"But if swinging voters vote for our party, we should have 70-80 MPs in our fold. This means we will become the third largest party and will be a part of the coalition government," Pisut said.

In that case, Puea Pandin should get at least 50 seats from the Northeast, 10 from the North, and some seats in the South, the Central region and Bangkok.

Political Desk

 The Nation