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Published on December 17, 2007

It will not be easy for any political outfit to defeat the reincarnation of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, which ruled the country for more than five years.

Everything the Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin Shinawatra did pleased and satisfied voters. They have not forgotten, and want more of these "attractive" populist policies, which have become deep-rooted.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the De-mocrat leader and challenger for prime minister, is at a disadvantage.

Chuan Leekpai, chief adviser to the Democrats, once said some think Abhisit too young, but he has been a member of Parliament for six terms and has many achievements to his name.

However, his track record is not as glittering as his rivals.

During his time as Prime Minister's Office minister, his work was dealing with "abstract" matters.

Some of his tasks were simply too big to be completed within a coalition government - such as the reform of the bureaucracy that was eventually completed during the Thaksin administration.

According to People Power secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee, Thai Rak Thai won its landslide victory in 2005 thanks to Thaksin's decisive and quick handling of the tsunami disaster of 2004. Thaksin performed well in the crisis.

He said People Power policies would satisfy voters and be deliverable.

Surapong said voters might like the policies served up by other parties, but if they were not deliverable, this would be a setback for them.

This might be what is happening to the Democrats. Not many voters believe Abhisit and his party can deliver on its "Urgent Operation Plan Doable in 99 Days" promises.

The policy platform is intended to rid it of its "sluggish" image, and make voters confident the party can do what it says.

A lifelong Democrat voter, who asked not to be named, said she was now undecided. She has never hesitated to cast her ballot for the Democrats in the past.

"It's different this time. I think the People Power's policies are interesting. On the contrary, I can't recall what the Democrats' policy is or what they did for us when they were in government. But, one thing I believe is that they are the best opposition party," she said.

Another big problem for the Democrats is the Northeast, one of the most important areas in this election.

The region has 135 seats, one third of the 400 constituencies. The party winning this region normally takes the country and forms the core of a coalition government. This was the case with the Thai Rak Thai and New Aspiration parties.

In the 2001 and 2005 elections Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai swept almost all the region's seats. Voters were attracted by the party's populist policies.

While the region became a Thai Rak Thai stronghold, the Democrats seemingly ignored the region. Last election they won only two seats there. Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban once declared he did not want to campaign in the Northeast.

It is interesting to note the comment of a Democrat that the party did not sit well in the hearts of Isaan voters. He said it was "political game" within the party.

It is known as the party of the South. Most key members are popular in the South. They are powerful in the party. It is said some of these people did not want the party's influence in the Northeast to grow because they would have to share power and influence with members from there.

So, if the Democrats want to compensate for their weakness in the Northeast it will have to sweep almost all seats in the South and Bangkok, a total of 92. This is comparable with the seats People Power is expected to win in Isaan.

Bangkok could be a problem. It is an arena hard to predict. Realising this, the party says if it cannot win at least 24 seats in the capital it will not be able to form the next government.

Despite a People Power poll lead, as much as half of all voters remain undecided.

The Democrats still have time to win these undecided ballots.

Bangkok voters are contradictory. Many polls show People Power ahead of the Democrats, but ironically find Abhisit the favoured candidate for prime minister.

Vote buying and money are always Democrat excuses. This time those excuses are no good. The leader of the 2006 coup is in charge of a special panel to end vote buying and the Election Commission is ready to arrest crooked politicians.

A new excuse the party is using this election is the news media. A Democrat source said newspapers and broadcasters were helping its opponents, intentionally and unintentionally. The publication of poll results that Democrat popularity is dropping added salt to the wound, he said.

The news media shed a negative light on the party by speculating on its defeat. If it wins the election, they will say it won unfairly, by luck or with the help of the military, he said.

He believed, however, that it would win and that its popularity was increasing.

Democrat accomplishments are not remembered because the last time it was in power was a decade ago, he added.

Other perceived problems are Abhisit and the party's strategies.

Simply saying Abhisit will be an honest prime minister who will not create chaos is not enough to win votes. It is true, people need reconciliation and peace. But, what they need most is a government that can tackle economic problems, increase incomes and give people a better life.

"It's okay if politicians are corrupt as long as we have a good living" was a popular phrase used by Thai Rak Thai supporters after the generals ousted their party.

Abhisit is seen as a good speaker, but someone who does little.

"He is too keen at talking. People are afraid he will not be able to perform when the time comes," another Democrat supporter said.

Abhisit realises his weak points so has "rebranded" himself as a "down-to-earth" politician - his motto is "Abhisit anywhere, any time".

The road to Government House has never been as open for the Democrats. But it remains to be seen if the oldest party can achieve its objective.

The referee has blown for kick off; can the players score?

Political Desk

The Nation